Prediction and Impact of Sea Level Rise on Properties and Infrastructure of Washington, DC

Washington, January 9, 2011 - The city of Washington, District of Columbia (DC) will face flooding, and eventual geographic changes, in both the short- and long-term future because of sea level rise (SLR) brought on by climate change, including global warming.
To fully assess the potential damage, a linear model was developed to predict SLR in Washington, DC, and its results compared to other nonlinear model results.
Using geographic information systems (GIS) and graphical visualization, analytical models were created for the city and its underlying infrastructure.
Values of SLR used in the assessments were 0.1 m for the year 2043 and 0.4 m for the year 2150 to model short-term SLR; 1.0 m, 2.5 m, and 5.0 m were used for long-term SLR.
All necessary data layers were obtained from free data banks from the U.S. Geological Survey and Washington, DC government websites. Using GIS software, inventories of the possibly affected infrastructure were made at different SLR.
Results of the analysis show that low SLR would lead to a minimal loss of city area. Damages to the local properties, however, are estimated at an assessment value of at least US$ 2 billion based on only the direct losses of properties listed in real estate databases, without accounting for infrastructure damages that include military installations, residential areas, governmental property, and cultural institutions. The projected value of lost property is in excess of US$ 24.6 billion at 5.0 m SLR.
> junksciencecom.files.wordpress.com: Prediction and Impact of Sea Level Rise on Properties and Infrastructure of Washington, DC (pdf 19 pages)

Climate talks mean life or death for island states

Durban, December 9, 2011 - So while climate change delegates haggle over deadlines, binding targets and finance, some of the world's poorest states are warning that rising sea levels and storms will sweep them away unless the world agrees to tackle global warning.
> www.enn.com: Climate talks mean life or death for island states

The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover

London, December 2, 2011 - (by Georges Monbiot and Mark Lyna) - Fraser Nelson makes the biggest blunder of his career by putting Nils-Axel Mörner's, a serial promoter of nonsense, in his magazine.
> www.guardian.co.uk: The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover

Bleak future for Bay area tidal marshes?

San Francisco, November 24, 2011 A new study, led by PRBO Conservation Science (PRBO), projects a bleak future for San Francisco Bay's tidal marshes under high-end sea-level rise scenarios that are increasingly likely. PRBO and colleagues found that in the worst case scenario 93% of San Francisco Bay's tidal marsh could be lost in the next 50-100 years [with 5.4 feet or 1.65 meters of sea-level rise, low sediment availability and no significant restoration].
> www.terradaily.com: Bleak future for Bay area tidal marshes?

Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade
London, November 16, 2011 - Sea-level rise due to climate change could cripple the city in Irene-like storm scenarios, new climate report claims.
Irene-like storms of the future would put a third of New York City streets under water and flood many of the tunnels leading into Manhattan in under an hour because of climate change, a new state government report warns Wednesday.
> www.guardian.co.uk: Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade

Sea levels will continue to rise for 500 years

Copenhagen, October 18 / 19, 2011 - Rising sea levels in the coming centuries is perhaps one of the most catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures. Massive economic costs, social consequences and forced migrations could result from global warming. But how frightening of times are we facing? Researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute are part of a team that has calculated the long-term outlook for rising sea levels in relation to the emission of greenhouse gases and pollution of the atmosphere using climate models.
> www.terradaily.com: Sea levels will continue to rise for 500 years
> www.climatecentral.org: The Next 500 Years of Sea Level Rise
> Silent drama: The Vanishing Arctic (Oct 17)

Study predicts sea level rise may take economic toll on California coast
(Physorg.com) - September 13, 2011 California beach towns could face hefty economic losses caused by sea level rise in the next century, according to a new state-commissioned study conducted by economists at San Francisco State University. The study forecasts the economic impact of sea level rise on five communities: Ocean Beach in San Francisco; Venice Beach and Malibu in Los Angeles; Carpinteria in Santa Barbara County; and Torrey Pines State Reserve in San Diego County.
> www.physorg.com: tudy predicts sea level rise may take economic toll on California coast

Sinking Pacific island considers moving to a man-made alternative
London / Auckland, 8 September 2011 The future for Kiribati, one of the low-lying Pacific nations threatened by rising seas, is so dire that the government is contemplating relocating the entire population to man-made islands resembling giant oil rigs.
> www.independent.co.uk: Sinking Pacific island considers moving to a man-made alternative

Joint statement of Pacific islands forum leaders and the secretary-general of the United Nations

Auckland, (New Zealand), 7 September 2011 - Pacific Island Forum (PIF) Leaders and the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) met on 7 September 2011 during the 42nd Pacific Islands Forum in Auckland, New Zealand.
At their meeting, PIF Leaders acknowledged the valuable contribution made by the UN system in the Pacific, and welcomed the first ever attendance at the PIF by a Secretary-General of the UN.
The Secretary-General congratulated PIF Leaders on the 40th Anniversary of the establishment of the PIF, and acknowledged the key role it plays in promoting sustainable development, environmental protection, good governance and peace and security through regional cooperation in the Pacific.
The Secretary General welcomed the focus at this year’s PIF on sustainable economic development.
> forum.forumsec.org: Joint statement of Pacific islands forum leaders and the secretary-general of the United Nations

Adapting to Climate Change With Floating Houses?

(ScienceDaily) August 26 2011 - Climate change is redefining the rules by which we live and at a pace we never expected. Because of rising sea level, several areas of the globe are in danger of vanishing from the map, disappearing under water. Society must adapt and maybe, one day, live in floating houses.
> www.sciencedaily.com: Adapting to Climate Change With Floating Houses?

Nature special: Ice and ocean

(Nature) August 21 2011 - A substantial amount of the Earth's surface water moves between ice sheets and oceans as the climate oscillates on geological timescales. Ocean warming, as well as atmospheric temperature rise, affects the current redistribution in response to climate change.
> www.nature.com: Focus on Warming Ice Sheets (August 2011)
> Antarctic MeltStability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world (Jul 24)
> Greenland Melt: Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica (Jul 03)

Island Nation's Climate Strategy Advances at Montreal Protocol Meeting Goal Is Protecting Most Vulnerable Countries
Montreal, 8 August 2011 – Proposed amendments to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol received support from a diverse group of developing and developed countries this week at the treaty’s annual Open Ended Working Group meeting.
> www.enn.com: Island Nation's Climate Strategy Advances at Montreal Protocol Meeting Goal Is Protecting Most Vulnerable Countries

Sea level rise less from Greenland, more from Antarctica, than expected during last interglacial

(Physorg), July 28, 2011 During the last prolonged warm spell on Earth, the oceans were at least four meters – and possibly as much as 6.5 meters, or about 20 feet – higher than they are now.
Where did all that extra water come from? Mainly from melting ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, and many scientists, including University of Wisconsin-Madison geoscience assistant professor Anders Carlson, have expected that Greenland was the main culprit.
> www.physorg.com: Sea level rise less from Greenland, more from Antarctica, than expected during last interglacial

Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again

(Sceptical Science), July 28, 2011, - The ongoing difficulty of accurately measuring the Earth's ocean heat content has led to premature "skeptic" claims about ocean cooling. A recent paper Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011) put the kibosh on ocean cooling claims. They find that from 2005 to 2010 the global oceans (10 to 1500 metres down) have continued to warm, although they caution that their result is based on the assumption that there are no more systematic errors in the data gathered from ARGO floats which measure ocean heat.
> www.skepticalscience.com: Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again

New Orleans is one of a dozen cities at risk from global warming, environmental group says

New Orleans, July 26, 2011, - New Orleans is one of a dozen U.S. cities most at risk from the effects of global warming, a threat that city officials here have recognized and are responding to in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, concludes a new report released today by the Natural Resources Defense Council.
> www.nola.com: New Orleans is one of a dozen cities at risk from global warming, environmental group says

Is Sea-Level Rise Accelerating?

Potsdam, July 12 / 25, 2011 - A few months ago a paper by Jim Houston and Bob Dean in the Journal of Coastal Research (JCR) cast doubt on whether global sea level rise has accelerated over the past century or so. As things go these days, ‘climate sceptics’ websites immediately heralded this as a “bombshell”. A rebuttal by Stephan Rahmstorf and Martin Vermeer has now been published in JCR.
> www.realclimate.nl: Is Sea-Level Rise Accelerating?
> www.pik-potsdam.de: Discussion of: Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses.
> Science Story: the Making of a Sea Level Study

Rising oceans - too late to turn the tide?

July 15, 2011 - Melting ice sheets contributed much more to rising sea levels than thermal expansion of warming ocean waters during the Last Interglacial Period, a UA-led team of researchers has found. The results further suggest that ocean levels continue to rise long after warming of the atmosphere has leveled off.
> www.physorg.com: Rising oceans - too late to turn the tide?

Strong El Niño could bring increased sea levels, storm surges to U.S. East Coast

New York, July 15 2011 - Coastal communities along the U.S. East Coast may be at risk to higher sea levels accompanied by more destructive storm surges in future El Niño years, according to a new study by NOAA. The study was prompted by an unusual number of destructive storm surges along the East Coast during the 2009-2010 El Niño winter.
> www.noaanews.noaa.gov: Strong El Niño could bring increased sea levels, storm surges to U.S. East Coast

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

New York, July 8 2011 - (by James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato) - Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene.
Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming.
Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient – they are prescriptions for disaster.
Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century.
Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.
> www.skepticalscience.com: Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow (Summary)
> www.giss.nasa.gov: Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow (Summary)
> arxiv.org: Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Oceanography: The Special Issue on Sea Level

(Oceanography), June 2011 - If you listen closely to the current public discourse on climate change, you will frequently hear the refrain "Global Warming and Sea Level Rise."
Although global warming is likely to have many serious consequences, it is the specter of sea level rise that seems to attract the most attention.
Perhaps this focus is because sea level rise lends itself to graphic (though inaccurate) portrayals, such as tsunami waves crashing onshore. Indeed, at the current global rate of ~ 3 mm yr–1, one might be tempted to dismiss sea level rise as a minor consequence of climate change. But, the current rate is expected to grow, possibly resulting in 1–2 m (3–6 ft) of sea level rise over the next 100 years.
This increase will directly threaten the 146 million people worldwide who currently live within 1 meter of mean high water. Entire island nations may be inundated, and roughly 3.5 trillion dollars of property are at risk along the east coast of the United States alone.
There are also a number of near-term threats, including the slow, ongoing inundation of ecologically sensitive marshlands, and increasing vulnerability to storm surge (see cover photo). It is against this backdrop that we present this special issue of Oceanography.
> www.tos.org: An Introduction to the Special Issue
> www.tos.org: Content Special Issue on Sea Level

Sea Levels Rising At Fastest Rate In 2,100 Years: Study

Washington, June 22, 2011 — Sea level has been rising significantly over the past century of global warming, according to a study that offers the most detailed look yet at the changes in ocean levels during the last 2,100 years.
The researchers found that since the late 19th century – as the world became industrialized – sea level has risen more than 2 millimeters per year, on average. That's a bit less than one-tenth of an inch, but it adds up over time.
It will lead to land loss, more flooding and saltwater invading bodies of fresh water, said lead researcher Benjamin Horton whose team examined sediment from North Carolina's Outer Banks. He directs the Sea Level Research Laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania.
> www.huffingtonpost.com: Sea Levels Rising At Fastest Rate In 2,100 Years: Study
> Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia (pdf)
> The rise and rise of the sea (How far could the sea rise?)

Seaports Need a Plan for Weathering Climate Change, Researchers Say

(ScienceDaily), May 16, 2011 — The majority of seaports around the world are unprepared for the potentially damaging impacts of climate change in the coming century, according to a new Stanford University study.
In a survey posed to port authorities around the world, the Stanford team found that most officials are unsure how best to protect their facilities from rising sea levels and more frequent Katrina-magnitude storms, which scientists say could be a consequence of global warming. Results from the survey are published in the journal Climatic Change.
"Part of the problem is that science says that by 2100, we'll experience anywhere from 1.5 to 6 feet of sea level rise," said the study's lead author, Austin Becker, a graduate student at Stanford. "That's a huge range."
> www.sciencedaily.com: Seaports Need a Plan for Weathering Climate Change, Researchers Say
> news.stanford.edu: Seaports need a plan for weathering climate change, say Stanford researchers

Tidal Gate Across San Francisco Bay Proposed to Manage Sea Level Rise

San Francisco, May 6 2011 - A giant tidal barrier stretched across the Golden Gate is among the adaptation remedies proposed by a Bay area nonprofit to cope with anticipated sea level rise caused by climate change over the coming century.
The San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association mentioned the idea this week as part of an extensive analysis of how global warming might affect the City by the Bay, which is thought to be highly susceptible to flooding and other dangers in the decades ahead.
> www.scientificamerican.com: Tidal Gate Across San Francisco Bay Proposed to Manage Sea Level Rise

Dramatic Sea Level Rise Expected From Faster Melting of Arctic Snow and Ice
Washington, DC, May 6, 2011 – Sea levels could rise up to 5 feet by the end of this century, driven by warming in the Arctic and the resulting melt of snow and ice, according to a new study by the International Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). This is more than two and a half times higher than the 2007 projection of a half to two feet by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> www.enn.com: Study Finds Sea-Level Rise Likely on West Coast

Study Finds Sea-Level Rise Likely on West Coast
(ENN), May 5 2011 - For the last few decades, sea levels of the eastern North Pacific Ocean along the west coast of North America have remained remarkably steady as other sea levels rise around the world. That is due to the dominance of cold surface waters along the coast. According to a new study from the University of California (UC) San Diego, the cold waters on the coast will give way to warmer waters beginning this decade, which will lead to accelerated sea-level rise. The change in water temperature is related to the climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
> www.enn.com: Study Finds Sea-Level Rise Likely on West Coast

Arctic Assessment bombshell: "Global sea level is projected to rise by 0.9–1.6 meter by 2100"

Copenhagen, May 4 2011 - A major new multi-country scientific assessment of the Arctic has concluded that on our current greenhouse gas emissions path, we face 3 to 5 feet of sea level rise — far greater than the 2007 IPCC warned of. This is fully consistent with several recent studies (see “Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100“).
> climateprogress.org: Arctic Assessment bombshell: “Global sea level is projected to rise by 0.9–1.6 meter by 2100?
> climateprogress.org: Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100

Seas could rise up to 1.6 meters by 2100

Copenhagen, May 3 2011 - The Arctic Council predicts a dramatically higher and more rapid rise in global sea levels in the future than previously thought. The AMAP Expert Group warns of an average rise in sea level from 0.9 to 1.6 meters by 2100, as reported in the Copenhagen newspaper Politiken. There are over 150 million people worldwide that live at an altitude of one meter above sea level or less.
The last major prediction of the IPCC which was adopted in 2007, predicted that Global warming would lead to a higher sea levels around 0.19 to 0.59 meters. In the forthcoming publication which will be released on Tuesday, the AMAP reports that it now means that the accelerated melting of the Arctic Glaciers and Greenland Ice sheet will contribute to the unexpectedly large change in sea level.
> www.newsaroundtheworld.net: Sea Levels are Rising Dramatically
> www.reuters.com: Seas could rise up to 1.6 meters by 2100: study
> www.afp.com: Oceans could rise 1.6 metres by 2100: study

Threatened Island Nations: Legal Implications of Rising Seas and a Changing Climate

New York, April 13 2011 - The Center for Climate Change Law and the Republic of the Marshall Islands are co-sponsoring a conference, “Threatened Island Nations: Legal Implications of a Changing Climate. The meeting will discuss such issues as continuing statehood and maintenance of maritime zones for states facing inundation from sea level rise; resettlement rights and practicalities of population displacement; liability for climatic harm in judicial forums; the utility of responsibility regimes under current law; and the role for a new convention on climate displacement.
> www.law.columbia.edu / Threatened Island Nations: Legal Implications of Rising Seas and a Changing Climate

New York set to be big loser as sea levels rise

London, April 8 2011 - New York is a major loser and Reykjavik a winner from new forecasts of sea level rise in different regions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in 2007 that sea levels would rise at least 28cm (1ft) by the year 2100.
But this is a global average; and now a Dutch team has made what appears to be the first attempt to model all the factors leading to regional variations.
> www.bbc.co.uk: New York set to be big loser as sea levels rise

World learns from Dutch to keep head above water

Rotterdam, March 21 2011 - Dubai's Palm Island, New Orleans' upgraded dykes and Australia's water recycling plants all have one thing in common: they benefited from Dutch know-how gained in the country's age-old quest for dry feet.
> news.yahoo.com / AFP: World learns from Dutch to keep head above water

Polar ice loss quickens, raising seas

London, March 9 2011 - Ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland has accelerated over the last 20 years, research shows, and will soon become the biggest driver of sea level rise.
From satellite data and climate models, scientists calculate that the two polar ice sheets are losing enough ice to raise sea levels by 1.3mm each year. Overall, sea levels are rising by about 3mm (0.12 inches) per year.
Writing in Geophysical Research Letters, the team says ice loss here is speeding up faster than models predict. If present trends continue, sea level is likely to be significantly higher than levels projected by the IPCC”.
They add their voices to several other studies that have concluded sea levels will rise faster than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its landmark 2007 assessment.
By 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic sheets were losing a combined mass of 475Gt (gigatonnes - billion tonnes) of ice per year.
On average, loss from the Greenland sheet is increasing by nearly 22Gt per year, while the much larger and colder Antarctic sheet is shedding an additional 14.5Gt each year.
If these increases persist, water from the two polar ice sheets could have added 15cm (5.9 inches) to the average global sea level by 2050.
A rise of similar size is projected to come from a combination of melt water from mountain glaciers and thermal expansion of seawater.
"That ice sheets will dominate future sea level rise is not surprising - they hold a lot more ice mass than mountain glaciers," said lead author Eric Rignot from Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California.
"What is surprising is this increased contribution by the ice sheets is already happening."
> www.bbc.co.uk: Polar ice loss quickens, raising seas (Mar 10)
> www.independent.co.uk: Melting ice sheets fuelling sea-level rise, warns Nasa (Mar 10)
> www.climatecentral.org: Study Finds Ice Sheets Becoming Dominant Contributor to Sea Level Rise (Mar 9)
> The rise and rise of the sea (Feb 28)
For our Dutch readers:
> De zeespiegelstijging valt volgens het IPCC helemaal niet mee (Allready 99 cm predicted in 2007)

Coastal cities prepare for rising sea levels

Los Angeles, (Cal/USA) March 6 2011 - Newport Beach and other communities on California's coast are planning to build up wetlands, construct levees and seawalls or move structures inland as climate change raises sea levels.
Cities along California's coastline that for years have dismissed reports of climate change or lagged in preparing for rising sea levels are now making plans to fortify their beaches, harbors and waterfronts.
Communities up and down the coast have begun drafting plans to build up wetlands as buffers against rising tides, to construct levees and seawalls to keep the waters at bay or to retreat from the shoreline by moving structures inland.
Among them is Newport Beach, a politically conservative city where a council member once professed to not believe in global warming. Now, the wealthy beach city is considered to be on the forefront of preparing for climate change.
> www.latimes.com: Coastal cities prepare for rising sea levels
> www.dailycomet.com: Experts say roads, ports could be in danger

Climate change 'will wreak havoc on Britain's coastline by 2050'

London, (Cal/USA) March 6 2011 - On Benbecula, they know all too well that rising tides threaten the UK's coastline. For the 1,200 inhabitants of the small, low-lying island in the Outer Hebrides, the sea's encroachment is becoming a serious problem, especially on its western shores.
Impacts of Climate Change on Disadvantaged UK Coastal Communities, a report to be published tomorrow by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, an influential thinktank, records how local people have seen the coastline retreat before their eyes in just a few years.
The threat posed by erosion has been exacerbated by the fact that the sea has taken material from the island's beaches that is normally used for constructing roads and buildings. But Benbecula is not alone: the report claims that rising sea levels are likely to have a "severe impact" on much of the UK's coastline by 2080.
The authors note that "the total rise in sea levels off the UK coast may exceed one metre, and could potentially reach two metres". They warn that "the frequency of intense storm events is expected to increase and, along with the rise in sea level, to lead to more coastal flooding".
> www.guardian.co.uk: CClimate change 'will wreak havoc on Britain's coastline by 2050'

Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise
Utrecht, March 4 2011 - Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance.
Geophysical Research Letters presents a new consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity.
Researchers find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise.
Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr 2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr 2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr 2.
This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr 2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.
> www.agu.org: Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts (2011), Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise (Payment needed)

The rise and rise of the sea (How far could the sea rise?)

Southhampton, 21 February 2011 - Recent research suggests that large long-term sea-level rise is coming our way unless we take drastic action soon. Scientists know that the projections in the 2007 IPCC report are far too conservative, but they are only starting to understand just how much sea levels could increase. The results are shocking, but the geological record shows they've happened before.
Meticulous sea-level research at Southampton University's School of Ocean and Earth Science (SOES) suggests that large long-term sea-level rise is coming our way unless we take drastic action soon. Professor Eelco Rohling tells us what this projection is based on.
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: The rise and rise of the sea (html)
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: The rise and rise of the sea (pdf)
See also:
> Martin Vermeer / Science Story: the Making of a Sea Level Study (Apr 06 2010)
> Aradhna Tripathi: Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report (Oct 07 2009)
> Stefan Rahmstorf: Two meter sea level rise unstoppable (Sep 30 2009)
> Paul Blanchon: Coral Fossils Suggest That Sea Level Can Rise Rapidly (Apr 17 2009)
> Anne de Vernal: Natural Variability of Greenland Climate, Vegetation, and Ice Volume During the Past Million Years (Jun 20 2008)
> Eelco Rohling: Fast-Rising Sea Levels in the Red Sea (Dec 26 2007)

Extreme tides flood Marshalls capital Majuro

Majuro, February 21, 2011 - Extreme high tides have flooded parts of the low-lying Marshall Islands capital Majuro with a warning Sunday of worse to come because of rising sea levels.
> www.physorg.com: Extreme tides flood Marshalls capital

Geologist: Sea level is rising

Jacksonville (North Carolina), February 20, 2011 - The shifting sands and ever-changing shape of North Carolina’s coast may be most evident along the area’s barrier islands, where beach towns are the front line in the conflict between human development and the natural processes that can threaten the homes and property built there.
. www.jdnews.com: Geologist: Sea level is rising

Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle

February 18, 2011 - Recent sea level rise has so far been difficult to fully explain: satellites measure global sea level rise since 1993 to be about 3.1 mm/year. The warming and expanding 'upper ocean', or the top 700 metres measured by ships and buoys can explain 1.2 mm/year whilst the water added by melting snow and ice can be estimated from satellite gravity measurements for ice sheets and other methods for smaller glaciers, and is about 0.85 mm/year.
> www.skepticalscience.com: Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle

Rising seas will affect major US coastal cities by 2100

Boulder (Col/US), February 16, 2011 - Rising sea levels could threaten an average of 9 percent of the land within 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100, according to new research led by University of Arizona scientists.
The Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts will be particularly hard hit. Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Fla., and Virginia Beach, Va. could lose more than 10 percent of their land area by 2100.
The research is the first analysis of vulnerability to sea-level rise that includes every U.S. coastal city in the lower 48 with a population of 50,000 or more.
The latest scientific projections indicate that by 2100, the sea level will rise about 1 meter -- or even more.
> www.eurekalert.org: Rising seas will affect major US coastal cities by 2100

Information Theory gives better handle on predicting floods
Delft, January 27, 2011 - Many different aspects are involved in predicting high water and floods, such as the type of precipitation, wind, buildings and vegetation. The greater the number of variables included in predictive models, the better the prediction will be. However, the models will inevitably become increasingly more complex. PhD student from Delft Steven Weijs uses basic insight from the information theory (Shannon's Information Theory) to demonstrate the cohesion between this added complexity, the information from observational data and the uncertainty of predictions. He will continue his research at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland thanks to funding from the prestigious AXA Research Fund Postdoctoral Fellowship.
> www.tudelft.nl: Information Theory gives better handle on predicting floods

Mountain glacier melt to contribute 12 centimeters to world sea-level increases by 2100
London, January 10, 2011 - Melt off from small mountain glaciers and ice caps will contribute about 12 centimetres to world sea-level increases by 2100, according to UBC research published this week in Nature Geoscience.
> www.physorg.com: Mountain glacier melt to contribute 12 centimeters to world sea-level increases by 2100

Global Sea-Level Rise At The End Of The Last Ice Age max 2 1/2 meter per century

Southampton, December 2 2010 - Southampton researchers have estimated that sea-level rose by an average of about 1 metre per century at the end of the last Ice Age, interrupted by rapid 'jumps' during which it rose by up to 2.5 metres per century. The findings, published in Global and Planetary Change, will help unravel the responses of ocean circulation and climate to large inputs of ice-sheet meltwater to the world ocean.
> www.spacedaily.com: Global Sea-Level Rise At The End Of The Last Ice Age
> Rohling / Fast-Rising Sea Levels in the Red Sea (26122007)

Cancun climate change summit: small island states in danger of 'extinction'

Cancún, 30 november 2010 - Small island states are calling for a ‘climate change insurance fund’ to protect their people from ‘going extinct’ as a new UN report warned sea level rise will make whole nations uninhabitable.
The study of climate change impacts in the Caribbean warned that sea levels could rise by up to 6.5ft (2m) by the end of the 21st Century if global warming continues. There is also an increased risk of hurricanes and storm surges.
According to the Oxford University research this would mean that 260,000 people are displaced from the islands, one million would be at risk of flooding and billions of dollars would be lost every year from the tourism industry alone.
> www.telegraph.co.uk / Cancun climate change summit: small island states in danger of 'extinction'
> www.independent.co.uk: Rising sea level threatens 'hundreds' of Caribbean resorts, says UN report

A billion people will lose their homes due to climate change, says report

London, 28 november 2010 - Devastating changes to sea levels, rainfall, water supplies, weather systems and crop yields are increasingly likely before the end of the century, scientists will warn tomorrow.
A special report, to be released at the start of climate negotiations in Cancún, Mexico, will reveal that up to a billion people face losing their homes in the next 90 years because of failures to agree curbs on carbon emissions.
Up to three billion people could lose access to clean water supplies because global temperatures cannot now be stopped from rising by 4C.
"The main message is that the closer we get to a four-degree rise, the harder it will be to deal with the consequences," said Dr Mark New, a climate expert at Oxford University, who organised a recent conference entitled "Four Degrees and Beyond" on behalf of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
> www.guardian.co.uk: A billion people will lose their homes due to climate change, says report
> rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org: Theme Issue 'Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications'
> Two meter sea level rise unstoppable: experts (Sep 30 2009)

Sea level rise: The New York Times got the story

New York, November 16, 2010 - Yesterday, the New York Times ran an excellent cover story on sea level rise, together with two full pages inside the paper, fancy graphs and great photographs. The author, Justin Gillis, researched the piece for months, visited Greenland and talked to most of the leading scientists in the field – many of which he cites in the article. The science presented is correct and up-to-date and the story is a gripping read. That’s how science journalism should be!
> www.nytimes.com: As Glaciers Melt, Science Seeks Data on Rising Seas
> www.realclimate.org: Sea level rise: The New York Times got the story

Climate adaptation: Adding to a tide of worry

Rotterdam, November 4 / 15, 2010 - Coastal cities worldwide struggle to slot climate impact into a lengthy catalog of worries. 'Cities are totally unable to deal with this extra level of complexity.'
> wwwp.dailyclimate.org: Climate adaptation: Adding to a tide of worry
> wwwp.dailyclimate.org: Uncertainty over sea-level predictions makes planning for change difficult
> planetark.org: Sea Level Rise Threatens Alexandria, Nile Delta (Nov 15)

Scientists Find 20 Years of Deep Water Warming Leading to Sea Level Rise

New York, September 20, 2010 - Scientists analyzing measurements taken in the deep ocean around the globe over the past two decades find a warming trend that contributes to sea level rise, especially around Antarctica.
> www.noaanews.noaa.gov: Scientists Find 20 Years of Deep Water Warming Leading to Sea Level Rise

New Orleans: Are the new defences tough enough?

New Orleans, August 27 2010 - It is almost exactly five years since hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, and the city is bracing for attack.
In a revamp now nearing completion, the city's 560-kilometre perimeter has been fortified by toughened levees, cement walls more than 9 metres high and foreboding gates that will grind shut when the enemy – flood water – nears.
But some say that these upgraded defences, which cost the US federal government $14.45 billion, aren't tough and comprehensive enough – in part because climate change could lead to more powerful storms.
> www.newscientist.com: New Orleans: Are the new defences tough enough?

Geoengineering no quick fix for sea-level rise

London, August 24 2010 - Sea levels are still likely to rise by at least 30cm by the end of 2100, compared with 2000 levels, unless we use the most extreme geoengineering solutions to ease climate change while also cutting CO2 emissions, say researchers.
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: Geoengineering no quick fix for sea-level rise
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: Global sea level is likely to rise by anywhere between 0.6 and 1.6 metres by the end of the century

If a country sinks beneath the sea, is it still a country?
Oslo, August 23, 2010 - If a country sinks beneath the sea, is it still a country? Rising ocean levels brought about by climate change have created a flood of unprecedented legal questions for small island nations and their neighbors.
Among them: If a country disappears, is it still a country? Does it keep its seat at the United Nations? Who controls its offshore mineral rights? Its shipping lanes? Its fish?
And if entire populations are forced to relocate -- as could be the case with citizens of the Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati and other small island states facing extinction -- what citizenship, if any, can those displaced people claim?
> www.cicero.uio.no: If a country sinks beneath the sea, is it still a country? (Oct 16)

The Rising Indian Ocean
Boulder (Col / USA) July 13 2010 - Changing sea levels have happened before and will happen again in a dynamic world. Newly detected rising sea levels in parts of the Indian Ocean, including the coastlines of the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, Sri Lanka, Sumatra and Java, appear to be at least partly a result of human induced increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases, says a study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder. The study, which combined sea surface measurements going back to the 1960s and satellite observations, will threaten inhabitants of some coastal areas and islands.
> www.enn.com: The Rising Indian Ocean
> www.enn.com: Rising sea drives Panama islanders to mainland

Climate conundrum: Rising seas, raising hopes

Cambridge (Mass/USA), May 5, 2010 - By the end of this century, sea levels in the Netherlands may rise more than 4 feet, a troubling prospect in a country where 70 percent of GNP is produced in protected areas that are below sea level.
To cope with the prospect of fast-rising water, two schools of thought have evolved in the nation of vulnerable delta cities: Use engineering know-how to build up dikes and improve pumping technology, or open cities to the sea in such a way that natural systems can co-exist with human habitation.
The second course — call it a “proto-ecological intervention” — is where Harvard comes in. Over the past two years, students at the Graduate School of Design (GSD) have puzzled over what they call the country’s “climate conundrum” in a project funded by the Netherlands.
> news.harvard.edu: Rising seas, raising hopes

Tear down that wall

London, April 27 2010 - The quickest way to adapt to rising sea levels is to simply build a wall to keep the water out. But by preventing coastal areas from eroding, manmade defenses also prevent wetlands from migrating inland, leaving them to slowly drown as the water rises.
> motherjones.com: Tear down that wall

CO2 to blame for major sea level rise by 2100

London, April 15 2010 - Global sea level is likely to rise by anywhere between 0.6 and 1.6 metres by the end of the century, say scientists.
What's more, they say increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases would be responsible for 95 per cent of this rise.
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: CO2 to blame for major sea level rise by 2100

Florida: Unarrested development

Miami, April 6 2010 - The last time sea level rise in Florida was as rapid as some forecasts predict for the coming century, it was about 8,000 years ago and there were Native Americans living on land that now lies beneath the Gulf of Mexico. It's safe to assume their retreat from submerging lands was relatively uncomplicated, thanks to low numbers and a simple lifestyle.
> Florida: Unarrested developmented barely abated despite a nearly record number of major hurricane hits in recent years.

Working with water

London, April 06 2010 - Nations threatened by sea level rise are starting to look at how they can work with nature to defend their coastlines.
> www.nature.com: Working with water

Science Story: the Making of a Sea Level Study

Realclimate, 6 April 2010 - (Guest commentary by Martin Vermeer) - On December 7, 2009 the embargo expired, and my and Stefan’s joint paper ‘Global sea level linked to global temperature’ appeared in the Proceedings of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. It had been a long time coming! But this post is not so much about the science as about the process, and about how a geodesist from Helsinki and an oceanographer from Potsdam, who to this day have never even met, came to write, to the surprise of both of us, a joint paper on sea level rise.
My own entry into climatology happened only a few years ago. A significant trigger was RealClimate, which I had learned to appreciate as one of the rare reliable internet sources amidst the junk. Contributing to the oft-slandered science is my small ‘thank you’ and revenge as a scientist.
> www.realclimate.org: the Making of a Sea Level Study
Related:
> www.pnas.org: Global sea level linked to global temperature
> www.pik-potsdam.de: A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise
> www.realclimate.org: Ups and downs of sea level projections (Aug 31 2009)

Rising seas claim island at centre of 30-year dispute

Kolkatta, March 25 2010 - A low-lying island in a sprawling mangrove delta which has been disputed by India and Bangladesh for almost 30 years will be squabbled over no more. It has disappeared beneath the waves.
In what experts say is an alarming indication of the danger posed by rising sea levels brought about by global warming, New Moore Island has become totally submerged. "It is definitely because of global warming," said Professor Sugata Hazra of Jadavpur University in Kolkata. "The sea level has been rising at twice the previous rate in the years between 2002 and 2009. The sea level is rising in accordance with rising temperatures."
> www.independent.co.uk: Rising seas claim island at centre of 30-year dispute

The Secret of Sea Level Rise: It Will Vary Greatly by Region
Yale, March 22 2010 - As the world warms, sea levels could easily rise three to six feet this century. But increases will vary widely by region, with prevailing winds, powerful ocean currents, and even the gravitational pull of the polar ice sheets determining whether some coastal areas will be inundated while others stay dry.
> e360.yale.edu: Sea Level rise Will Vary Greatly by Region

Timing and magnitude of the sea-level jump preluding the 8200 yr event
Utrecht, March 3 2010 - (abstract) - Evidence from terrestrial, glacial, and global climate model reconstructions suggests that a sea-level jump caused by meltwater release was associated with the triggering of the 8.2 ka cooling event.
However, there has been no direct measurement of this jump using precise sea-level data. In addition, the chronology of the meltwater pulse is based on marine data with limited dating accuracy.
The most plausible mechanism for triggering the cooling event is the sudden, possibly multistaged drainage of the Laurentide proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic ca. 8470 ± 300 yr ago.
Here we show with detailed sea-level data from Rotterdam, Netherlands, that the sea-level rise commenced 8450 ± 44 yr ago. Our timing considerably narrows the existing age of this drainage event and provides support for the hypothesis of a double-staged lake drainage.
The jump in sea level reached a local magnitude of 2.11 ± 0.89 m within 200 yr, in addition to the ongoing background relative sea-level rise (1.95 ± 0.74 m). This magnitude, observed at considerable distance from the release site, points to a global-averaged eustatic sea-level jump that is double the size of previous estimates (3.0 ± 1.2 m versus 0.4–1.4 m). The discrepancy suggests either a coeval Antarctic contribution or, more likely, a previous underestimate of the total American lake drainage.
> geology.gsapubs.org: Timing and magnitude of the sea-level jump preluding the 8200 yr event

Information is Beautiful: When Sea Levels Attack

What does a metre sea level rise actually mean? This is how we visualised some of the data confusion. Click on graph to enlarge. Source: The Guardian.

London, February 22, 2010 - Another day, another set of bewildering climate figures. Today, key climate scientists withdrew their predictions of a metre sea-level rise by 2100. Other scientists meanwhile claimed the 1m figure was way too conservative anyway. They predict anything up to 2m sea level rises over the next century.
It's difficult to keep track of all this shifting research. And, in the midst of this reporting, there is one consistent but bewildering assumption made of us: that we understand what a one metre sea level rise means in reality.
> www.guardian.co.uk / Information is Beautiful: When Sea Levels Attack

Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels
London, February 21, 2010 - Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.
The study, published in 2009 in Nature Geoscience, one of the top journals in its field, confirmed the conclusions of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It used data over the last 22,000 years to predict that sea level would rise by between 7cm and 82cm by the end of the century.
A new skeptic argument has emerged that upon close inspection, is a polar opposite to the scientific reality expressed in this article. This has led some to a claim that sea levels are no longer predicted to rise.
This interpretation was helped no doubt by the unfortunate Guardian headline "Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels". However, when you read the article and peruse the peer-reviewed science on future sea level, you learn that the opposite is the case.
> www.guardian.co.uk: Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels
> www.skepticalscience.com: Misinterpreting a retraction of rising sea level predictions
See also:
> www.nature.com: Retraction: Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change
> www.pnas.org: Global sea level linked to global temperature

In Low-Lying Bangladesh, The Sea Takes a Human Toll

New Haven (NE/USA), January 28, 2010 - Danish photographer and filmmaker Jonathan Bjerg Møller recently spent nine months in Bangladesh, chronicling the lives of people struggling to survive just a few feet above sea level. He traveled to the South Asian nation after hearing projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about the millions of climate refugees that would be created this century by rising seas and more powerful storms. Møller wanted to put a human face on this issue, and decided there was no better place than Bangladesh, where 15 million of its 160 million people live less than three feet above sea level.
> e360.yale.edu: In Low-Lying Bangladesh, The Sea Takes a Human Toll

China sea levels reach record high
Shanghai, January 28, 2010 - The sea level in China late last year hit a record high for the past three decades, threatening the safety of thousands of people in the coastal areas, the national ocean agency said yesterday.
The average rise in sea level for the past three decades occurred at a rate of 2.6 mm a year, much higher than the average rate of 1.7 mm annually across the world, a report on the sea-level rise in China for 2009 released by the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) showed.
"Last year, the sea level was 8 mm higher than 2008 with the rise in sea level in Hainan Province reaching 113 mm, the highest across the country," Lin Shanqing, director of forecast and disaster relief department of the SOA, said yesterday.
Extreme weather like high temperatures and monsoons play an important role in the rise in sea level, Lin said.
> www.china.org.cn: China sea levels reach record high

Radical sea defence rethink urged

London, January 17 2010 - Rising sea levels and more storms could mean that parts of at-risk cities will need to be surrendered to protect homes and businesses, a report warns.
> news.bbc.co.uk: Radical sea defence rethink urged

Get ready for seven-foot sea level rise as climate change melts ice sheets

London, January 15 2010 - The IPCC's 2007 report missed out the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets which would be the key drivers in dramatic sea level rises.
The reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are balanced and comprehensive documents summarizing the impact of global warming on the planet. But they are not without imperfections, and one of the most notable was the analysis of future sea level rise contained in the latest report, issued in 2007.
> www.guardian.co.uk: Get ready for seven-foot sea level rise as climate change melts ice sheets
> Is Antarctica Melting?
> The Unfrozen North

Forget the Club of Rome, This is the Club Of Losers

Copenhagen, December 21 2009 - After days of negotiations, debate, political drama and pages of will-they or won't-they headlines, the Copenhagen climate conference is over. And there is no conclusive agreement on any important issues. So did the situation produce any winners -- or has the whole world become a club for environmental losers?
> www.spiegel.de: Forget the Club of Rome, This is the Club Of Losers

Study: Earth's polar ice sheets vulnerable to even moderate global warming

(Princeton / Harvard) / London, December 16 2009 - A new analysis of the geological record of the Earth's sea level, carried out by scientists at Princeton and Harvard universities and published in the Dec. 16 issue of Nature, employs a novel statistical approach that reveals the planet's polar ice sheets are vulnerable to large-scale melting even under moderate global warming scenarios. Such melting would lead to a large and relatively rapid rise in global sea level.
According to the analysis, an additional 2 degrees of global warming could commit the planet to 6 to 9 meters (20 to 30 feet) of long-term sea level rise. This rise would inundate low-lying coastal areas where hundreds of millions of people now reside. It would permanently submerge New Orleans and other parts of southern Louisiana, much of southern Florida and other parts of the U.S. East Coast, much of Bangladesh, and most of the Netherlands, unless unprecedented and expensive coastal protection were undertaken. And while the researchers' findings indicate that such a rise would likely take centuries to complete, if emissions of greenhouse gases are not abated, the planet could be committed during this century to a level of warming sufficient to trigger this outcome.
> www.eurekalert.org: Study: Earth's polar ice sheets vulnerable to even moderate global warming
> theenergycollective.com / Nature: Sea level rise may exceed worst expectations
> www.princeton.edu: Earth's polar ice sheets vulnerable to even moderate global warming
> www.nature.com: Sea level rise may exceed worst expectations
> www.nature.com: Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage (Abstract)

Global sea level linked to global temperature
Amsterdam, December 8 2009 - Scientists are proposing a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature.
This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century.
When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.
> www.pnas.org: Global sea level linked to global temperature

Sea level rise could cost port cities $28 trillion

Berlin / Gland, November 24, 2009 - A possible rise in sea levels by 0.5 meters by 2050 could put at risk more than $28 trillion worth of assets in the world's largest coastal cities, according to a report compiled for the insurance industry.
The value of infrastructure exposed in so-called "port mega-cities," urban conurbations with more than 10 million people, is just $3 trillion at present.
Titled Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector, the report was written by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. It was issued by WWF and Allianz, the world's second largest international insurance and financial services company.
The World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) and Allianz jointly warned that 'tipping points' will be reached if no action is taken to counteract climate change.
"If we don't take immediate action against climate change, we are in grave danger of disruptive and devastating changes," said Kim Carstensen, head of WWF's Global Climate Initiative, in a statement in Berlin.
> edition.cnn.com: Sea level rise could cost port cities $28 trillion
> www.businessgreen.com: Insurance giant warns climate "tipping points" in sight
> knowledge.allianz.com: Climate Tipping Points of No Return
> www.panda.org: Unchecked Climate change will put world at ‘tipping point’, WWF and Allianz report says
> assets.panda.org: Tipping points / Executive Summary

Rising sea levels: A tale of two cities

Rotterdam / Maputo, November 24, 2009 - When people talk about the impact of rising sea levels, they often think of small island states that risk being submerged if global warming continues unchecked.
But it's not only those on low-lying islands who are in danger. Millions of people live by the sea - and are dependent on it for their livelihoods - and many of the world's largest cities are on the coast.
By 2050 the number of people living in delta cities is set to increase by as much as 70%, experts suggest, vastly increasing the number of those at risk.
To shed light the impact of rising sea levels, we are taking a close look at two very different cities, Rotterdam and Maputo , and their varying responses to the problem.
> news.bbc.co.uk: Rising sea levels: A tale of two cities

Dutch build more dunes against rising seas

Monster, November 20, 2009 - On the beach at Monster, bulldozers painstakingly turn sand dredged from the bottom of the North Sea bed into dunes in an ambitious effort to safeguard the Netherlands from flooding.
> www.physorg.com: Dutch build more dunes against rising seas
> See related page in Dutch

Rising CO2 will cause catastrophic sea level rise finds Antarctic study

London, November 18, 2009 - The British Antarctic Survey found that during past periods of high carbon dioxide, temperatures in Antarctica were up to 6C above current levels. This could cause a sea level rise of up six metres, threatening coastal cities like London, New York and San Francisco.
It is the latest research to warn of the consequences of increased greenhouse gases on the Earth's climate. Yesterday a study warned that carbon dioxide produced by man is now rising at record rates putting the world on a pathway for a 6C rise in temperature.
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Rising CO2 will cause catastrophic sea level rise finds Antarctic study
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Climate change: Temperatures to increase 6C by end of century

Maldives anger at climate inertia

Male, November 9, 2009 - The president of the Maldives has strongly criticised the world's rich countries for doing too little to stem climate change.
Mohamed Nasheed said there was so little money offered to vulnerable nations that it was like arriving at an earthquake with a dustpan and brush.
> news.bbc.co.uk: Maldives anger at climate inertia

West Australia sea level rising fast

Perth, November 9, 2009 - New figures have revealed that sea levels along the coast of Western Australia are rising at a rate double that of the world average.
Statistics from Australia's National Tidal Centre show levels have increased by 8.6 mm a year off the coast of the state capital Perth.
> news.bbc.co.uk: West Australia sea level rising fast

Maldivians face life as 'climate refugees'
Maldives sends climate SOS with undersea cabinet

Male, Sat Oct 17 / 22, 2009 - The Maldivian president and ministers held the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on Saturday, in a symbolic cry for help over rising sea levels that threaten the tropical archipelago's existence.
The people of the Maldives face the prospect of life in a "climate refugee camp," President Mohamed Nasheed warned as he urged rich countries to clinch an effective global warming treaty.
> www.reuters.com: Maldives sends climate SOS with undersea cabinet
> news.yahoo.com / afp : Maldivians face life as 'climate refugees': president (Oct 22)

Kyoto Protocol Is a Lifeline for Island Nations
Bangkok, October 12 2009 - "It was a little bit scary," says Dessima Williams, describing how the two weeks of United Nations climate change negotiations ended here on Oct. 9. "Our concerns need to be heard more."
Her assessment as the head of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a group of 43 island nations spread across the oceans, amplifies the fear of a rise in sea levels from global warming. For some island nations, such as the Maldives, a rise in the Indian Ocean could see it wiped off the planet.
> www.ipsnews.net: Kyoto Protocol Is a Lifeline for Island Nations

Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report

Los Angeles, October 7 2009 - "The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were ~3 to 6°C warmer and sea level 25 to 40 meters higher than present, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
> www.ucla.edu: Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report
> e360.yale.edu: Current CO2 Levels May Be Highest in 15 Million Years
> www.sciencemag.org: Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years

How will future sea-level rise linked to climate change affect coastal areas?

October 5th, 2009 - The anticipated sea-level rise associated with climate change, including increased storminess, over the next 100 years and the impact on the nation's low-lying coastal infrastructure is the focus of a new, interdisciplinary study led by geologists at The Florida State University.
> www.physorg.com: How will future sea-level rise linked to climate change affect coastal areas?

Two meter sea level rise unstoppable: experts

Oxford, September 30 2009 - A rise of at least two meters in the world's sea levels is now almost unstoppable, experts told a climate conference at Oxford University on Tuesday.
"The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at Germany's Potsdam Institute and a widely recognized sea level expert.
"There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions."
Rahmstorf said the best outcome was that after temperatures stabilized, sea levels would only rise at a steady rate "for centuries to come," and not accelerate.
Scientists say that ice melt acquires a momentum of its own - for example warming the air as less ice reflects less heat, warming the local area. "Once the ice is on the move, it's like a tipping point which reinforces itself," said Wageningen University's Pier Vellinga, citing various research. "Even if you reduce all the emissions in the world once this has started it may be unstoppable. I conclude that beyond 2 degrees global average temperature rise the probability of the Greenland ice sheet disintegrating is 50 percent or more." "(That) will result in about 7 meters sea level rise, and the time frame is about 300-1,000 years."
> 4 degrees and beyond: No easy way out (Sep/Oct 2009)
> www.reuters.com: Two meter sea level rise unstoppable: experts
> www.eci.ox.ac.uk: Presentations 4 Degrees and Beyond

Prof Pier Vellinga (VU-Amsterdam, Wageningen):
> Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+°C World (slides)
> idem audio

Prof Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research):
> Sea-level rise in a 4°C world (slides)
> idem audio

Impacts of Climate Change Coming Faster and Sooner

The Sundarbans in Bangladesh seem to be doomed during our children's life

Washington, September 25 2009 - The pace and scale of climate change may now be outstripping even the most sobering predictions of the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC).
An analysis of the very latest, peer-reviewed science indicates that many predictions at the upper end of the IPCC's forecasts are becoming ever more likely.
Climate researchers now predict the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world's leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago, according to a report released Thursday by the United Nations Environment Program.
Some scientists are now warning that sea levels could rise by one to two metres by 2100 and five to ten times that over following centuries, instead of 1.5 feet, as the IPCC had projected.
"Allready we are committed to sea level rise over the next millenium, with one meter likely for the next century but with 5 to times that in the following centuries," says the UNEP report.
> www.unep.org: New Science Report Underlines Urgency for Governments to Seal the Deal in Copenhagen
> www.reuters.com: Droughts, melts signal climate change quickening: U.N.
> www.washingtonpost.com: New Analysis Brings Dire Forecast Of 6.3-Degree (Fahrenheit) Temperature Increase

New York City Girds Itself for Heat and Rising Seas
New York, September 10 2009 - By the end of the century, New York’s climate could resemble that of present-day Raleigh, North Carolina and its harbor could easily rise by two feet or more. Faced with this prospect, the city is among the first urban centers to begin changing the way it builds its infrastructure — and the way it thinks about its future.
> e360.yale.edu: New York City Girds Itself for Heat and Rising Seas

Warming Arctic's global impacts outstrip predictions

Genève, September 2 2009 - Warming in the Arctic could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools, and extreme global weather changes, according to a new WWF report.
The Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications report, released today, outlines dire global consequences of a warming Arctic that are far worse than previous projections. The unprecedented peer-reviewed report brings together top climate scientists who have assessed the current science on arctic warming.
www.panda.org: Warming Arctic's global impacts outstrip predictions
www.panda.org: Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications Executive summary

Ups and downs of sea level projections
RealClimate, September 1 2009 - The scientific sea level discussion has moved a long way since the last IPCC report was published in 2007 (see our post back then). The Copenhagen Synthesis Report recently concluded that “The updated estimates of the future global mean sea level rise are about double the IPCC projections from 2007?. New Scientist last month ran a nice article on the state of the science, very much in the same vein. But now Mark Siddall, Thomas Stocker and Peter Clark have countered this trend in an article in Nature Geoscience, projecting a global rise of only 7 to 82 cm from 2000 to the end of this century.
www.realclimate.org: Ups and downs of sea level projections

Nile Delta: 'We are going underwater. The sea will conquer our lands'
Cairo, August 21 2009 - The Nile Delta is under threat from rising sea levels. Without the food it produces, Egypt faces catastrophe.
www.guardian.co.uk: Nile Delta: 'We are going underwater. The sea will conquer our lands'

Mekong Delta May Be Inundated By Rising Sea
Hanoi, August 21 2009 - More than a third of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, where nearly half of the country's rice is grown, will be submerged if sea levels rise by 1 meter (39 inches), an environment ministry scenario predicted.
A sea level increase of that magnitude would also inundate a quarter of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's biggest city and home to more than 6 million people, according to the extreme scenario, outlined in the newspaper Tuoi Tre on Thursday.
Environmental scientists have long listed Vietnam, with its lengthy coastline and vast swathes of low-lying ground, as one of the most vulnerable countries on earth to climate change.
planetark.org: Mekong Delta May Be Inundated By Rising Sea

Small Island Nations Demand More Emissions Cuts

United Nations, July 12 2009 - This week's pledges by G8 leaders to cap increases in the world's temperature are insufficient, a group of small island countries that face potential catastrophe from climate change said on Friday.
planetark.org: Small Island Nations Demand More Emissions Cuts

Close relationship between past warming and sea-level rise

Much of the European coast would be affected by 2 metres (red) of sea level rise. Sea levels will take a couple of thousand years to rise 25 metres (yellow). The maps show the areas that lie within 2 and 25 metres of present sea levels (Image: Google – Map data © 2009 PPWK, Tele Atlas. Overlay: heywhatsthat.com)

Southampton, / Tübingen / Bristol, June 22 2009 — Scientists from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, along with colleagues from Tuebingen and Bristol have reconstructed sea-level fluctuations over the last 520,000 years.
Comparison of this record with data on global climate and CO2 levels from Antarctic ice cores suggests that even stabilization at today's CO2 levels may commit us to much greater sea-level rise over the next couple of millennia than previously thought.
> www.physorg.com: Close relationship between past warming and sea-level rise
> www.newscientist.com: Earth's coastlines after sea-level rise, 4000 AD
> www.nature.com: Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles
See also:
> www.pages-igbp.org / Pages News June 2009: Understanding sea level: Ways forward from the past
See also:
> www.umces.edu / E Rohling et all: High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period (Dec 15 2007)
> > www.pages-igbp.org / Pages News April 2007: High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period / Page 25: MIS 11 Rocks! The smoking gun of a catastrophic + 20 m eustatic sea-level rise

Sea-level rise higher than expected

Southampton, / Tübingen / Bristol, June 22 2009 — Current carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere may commit us to sea-level rises of up to 25 metres, says new research based on a comparison of Antarctic ice temperature records with new sea-level data from the Red Sea.
planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: Sea-level rise higher than expected

Carbon Dioxide Higher Today Than Last 2.1 Million Years
ScienceDaily (June 21, 2009) — Researchers have reconstructed atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 2.1 million years in the sharpest detail yet, shedding new light on its role in the earth's cycles of cooling and warming.
www.sciencedaily.com: Carbon Dioxide Higher Today Than Last 2.1 Million Years

Ocean temperatures and sea level increases 50 percent higher than previously estimated
Livermore, Cal/USA, June 19 2009 — New research suggests that ocean temperature and associated sea level increases between 1961 and 2003 were 50 percent larger than estimated in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
> www.enn.com: Ocean temperatures and sea level increases 50 percent higher than previously estimated

Extra sea level rise because of Greenland Melt
Hurricane barriers floated to keep sea out of NYC

Map shows proposed barriers to protect New York City from storm surges caused by hurricane and sea level rise

New York, May 31st, 2009 - When experts sketch out nightmare hurricane scenarios, a New York strike tends to be high on the list.
New York, Boston and other cities on North America's northeast coast could face an extra rise in sea level this century that would exceed forecasts for the rest of the planet if Greenland's ice sheet keeps melting as fast as it is now, researchers said on Wednesday.
> www.physorg.com: Hurricane barriers floated to keep sea out of NYC
> www.agu.org: Rapid change in freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean
> www.reuters.com: Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise

Flood risk from Antarctic ice 'overestimated'

Cross section of the West Antarctic ice sheet showing the bedrock and the Filchner Ronne ice shelf on the left and the Ross ice shelf on the right. (Image: J. Bamber, University of Bristol)

London, April 17 2009 - The precariously moored West Antarctic ice sheet probably won't collapse into the ocean all in one go as the climate warms. But the bad news, says a researcher, is that the sections most likely to be released into the ocean would raise sea levels globally by 3.3 metres – and rather more on the shores of North America.
> www.newscientist.com: Flood risk from Antarctic ice 'overestimated' but still 'high'
> news.bbc.co.uk: Ice sheet melt threat reassessed
> www.independent.co.uk: Melting ice could cause gravity shift

Coral Fossils Suggest That Sea Level Can Rise Rapidly

London, April 17 2009 - Evidence from fossil coral reefs in Mexico underlines the potential for a sudden jump in sea levels because of global warming, scientists report in a new study.
The study, being published Thursday in the journal Nature, suggests that a sudden rise of 6.5 feet to 10 feet occurred within a span of 50 to 100 years about 121,000 years ago, at the end of the last warm interval between ice ages.
“The potential for sustained rapid ice loss and catastrophic sea-level rise in the near future is confirmed by our discovery of sea-level instability” in that period, the authors write.
> www.nytimes.com: Coral Fossils Suggest That Sea Level Can Rise Rapidly
> www.foxnews.com: Sea Levels Could Rise 10 Feet in 50 Years
> www.nature.com: Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand (Abstract)
> www.ifm-geomar.de: Rapide Meeresspiegelschwankungen in Warmzeiten
> climateprogress.org: Nature sea level rise shocker: Coral fossils suggest “catastrophic increase of more than 5 centimetres per year over a 50-year stretch is possible.” Lead author warns, “This could happen again.”
Sea also:
> www.nature.com: Rohling et al: High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period (Abstract)
> Rohling: Fast-Rising Sea Levels in the Red Sea (Dec 26 2007)
> Anne de Vernal: Natural Variability of Greenland Climate, Vegetation, and Ice Volume During the Past Million Years (Jun 20 2008)
> Greenland was really green (July 2007)

Scilly Isles could have to be abandoned because of global warming

London, March 21 - One of Britain's most beautiful locations - described as the Maldives of the Atlantic - may have to be abandoned because global warming could make it uninhabitable, experts have warned.
www.telegraph.co.uk: Scilly Isles could have to be abandoned because of global warming

Carbon-neutral goal for Maldives

Male, March 15 2009 - The Maldives will become carbon-neutral within a decade by switching completely to renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, its leader has said.
President Mohamed Nasheed told the BBC the Maldives understood better than most what would happen if the world failed to tackle climate change.
His tiny country is one of the lowest-lying on Earth and so is extremely vulnerable to rises in sea level.
He said he hoped his plan would serve as a blueprint for other nations.
news.bbc.co.uk: Sea-Level Rise Poses New Flood Risk To California

Sea-Level Rise Poses New Flood Risk To California
Los Angeles, March 12 2009 - California's farms and cities may be left high and dry by prolonged drought, but climate change is expected to leave much of the state's fabled shoreline awash in excess seawater before too long.
Nearly 500,000 people and $100 billion worth of property in coastal California are at risk of severe flooding from rising sea levels this century unless new safeguards are put in place, researchers reported.
www.planetark.org: Sea-Level Rise Poses New Flood Risk To California
www.enn.com: California panel urges 'immediate action' to protect against rising sea levels
gristmill.grist.org: California has much to lose from rising sea levels, study says

We should be alarmed about rising sea levels

London, March 11 2009 - The oceans are stirring. Deep beneath the sea, primeval forces have been unleashed that may engulf us all – unless we take to our boats to escape the rising tides.
Scientists have dramatically increased forecasts of rising sea levels, and the results could rival science fiction, argues Fred Pearce.
www.planetark.org: We should be alarmed about rising sea levels

Sea levels rising faster than expected: scientists
Copenhagen, March 10 2009 - The U.N.'s climate change panel may be severely underestimating the sea-level rise caused by global warming, climate scientists said on Monday, calling for swift cuts in greenhouse emissions.
The global sea level looks set to rise far higher than forecast because of changes in the polar ice-sheets, the scientists suggested.
Earlier UN estimates were too low and sea levels could rise by a meter or more by 2100.
The projections did not include the potential impact of polar melting and ice breaking off, they added.
The implications for millions of people would be "severe", they warned.
www.reuters.com: Sea levels rising faster than expected: scientists
news.bbc.co.uk: Sea rise 'to exceed projections'

Rising sea levels subject of run-up to international climate talks
Copenhagen, March 10 2009 - Melting ice sheets could raise sea levels high enough to flood coastal areas around the globe by the end of the century, according to scientists gathering in Denmark today for a three-day climate-change conference. The phenomenon could affect regions including Florida, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and the Maldives.
www.sciam.com: Rising sea levels subject of run-up to international climate talks

Scientists to issue stark warning over dramatic new sea level figures
Copenhagen, March 8 2009 - Rising sea levels pose a far bigger eco threat than previously thought. This week's climate change conference in Copenhagen will sound an alarm over new floodings - enough to swamp Bangladesh, Florida, the Norfolk Broads and the Thames estuary.
www.guardian.co.uk: Scientists to issue stark warning over dramatic new sea level figures
www.telegraph.co.uk: Rising sea levels from global warming 'could wipe out Norfolk Broads'

Climate Changes Makes Refugees in Bangladesh

March 2 / 6, 2009, - Bangladesh and countries like it are on the frontlines of mass migrations as a result of global warming.
> www.sciam.com: Climate Changes Makes Refugees in Bangladesh part 1
> www.sciam.com: How Climate Changes Makes Refugees in Bangladesh - part 2

Coral atolls and sea level rise

Solomon Islands, March 5 2009 - Much has been written of late regarding the impending demise of the world's coral atolls due to sea level rise.
Recently, here in the Solomon Islands, the sea level rise has been blamed for salt water intrusion into the subsurface "lens" of fresh water under some atolls.
Beneath the surface of most atolls, there is a lens shaped body of fresh water which floats on the seawater underneath.
www.reuters.com: Polar regions found warming fast, raising sea levels

We must shake off this inertia to keep sea level rises to a minimum

Change in Sea Level in cm. Click on picture to see the article and full graph in relation to temperature and CO2 concentration.

London, March 3 2009 - Björn Lomborg's claim that sea levels are not rising faster than predicted are unfounded and used by those wanting to downplay climate change, says Stefan Rahmstorf. "Global sea level is rising, and faster than expected. We need to honestly discuss this risk rather than trying to play it down."
www.guardian.co.uk: We must shake off this inertia to keep sea level rises to a minimum
www.pik-potsdam.de: Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
www.pik-potsdam.de: A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise
www.pik-potsdam.de: Climate Change - State of the Science
Dutch readers could also read:
De zeespiegelstijging valt volgens het IPCC helemaal niet mee (March 30 2007)

Polar regions found warming fast, raising sea levels
Geneva, February 25 2009 - The Arctic and Antarctic regions are warming faster than previously thought, raising world sea levels and making drastic global climate change more likely than ever, international scientists said.
New evidence of the trend was uncovered by wide-ranging research in the two areas over the past two years in a United Nations-backed program dubbed the International Polar Year (IPY), they said.
www.reuters.com: Polar regions found warming fast, raising sea levels
news.bbc.co.uk: Polar Year 'hailed as a success'
afp.com: Scientists find bigger than expected polar ice melt

West Antarctic ice sheet collapse even more catastrophic for U.S. coasts

The fate of FLorida and Lousiana if we’re myopic and greedy enough to let the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapse.

February 5th, 2009 - A new study published in Science Magazine finds that sea level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would likely be 25% higher for North America than previously estimated.
The catastrophic increase in sea level, already projected to average between 16 and 17 feet around the world, would be almost 21 feet in such places as Washington, D.C., scientists say, putting it largely underwater. Many coastal areas would be devastated. Much of Southern Florida would disappear.
climateprogress.org: West Antarctic ice sheet collapse even more catastrophic for U.S. coasts
www.reuters.com: Antarctic ice sheet collapse may swamp U.S. coasts
www.physorg.com: Sea level rise could be worse than anticipated
www.sciencedaily.com: Collapse Of Antarctic Ice Sheet Would Likely Put Washington, D.C. Largely Underwater
www.sciencemag.org: The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse (Febr 6 2009)
www.cresis.ku.edu: Sea Level Rise Maps

Rising Sea Salinates India's Ganges: Expert
Kolkata, February 3, 2009 - Rising sea levels are causing salt water to flow into India's biggest river, threatening its ecosystem and turning vast farmlands barren in the country's east, a climate change expert warned Monday.
planetark.org: Rising Sea Salinates India's Ganges: Expert

Mapping In A One Meter Sea Level Rise

The curve shows the sea level from the year 200 to the year 2100. The future rise in sea level of 1 m is calculated from global warming of 3 degrees in this century. The dotted line indicates the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's prediction. The blue shade indicates the calculations' degree of uncertainty. Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institutet

Copengagen, January 11, 2009 - New research indicates that the ocean could rise in the next 100 years to a meter higher than the current sea level - which is three times higher than predictions from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. The groundbreaking new results from an international collaboration between researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, England and Finland are published in the scientific journal Climate Dynamics.
www.spacemart.com: Mapping In A One Meter Sea Level Rise
www.springerlink.com: Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD (abstract)

Netherlands to strengthen flood fortifications
The Hague, December 18, 2008 - The Dutch government on Thursday unveiled a multi-billion dollar plan to reinforce dykes and the coastline and augment fresh water supplies in the face of rising sea levels due to global warming.
Two-thirds of the Netherlands lies below sea-level and the country is increasingly worried about the threat of devastating floods.
The government's national water plan proposes strengthening hundreds of kilometres (miles) of dykes along the North Sea, adding massive sand deposits to the coast, increasing river drainage capacity, and expanding the freshwater Ijsselmeer (lake) north of Amsterdam.
www.terradaily.com: Netherlands to strengthen flood fortifications

Sea level could rise by 150cm, US scientists warn
London, December 16 2008 - Sea level rise due to global warming will "substantially exceed" official UN projections and could top 150cm by the end of the century, according to a report from the US Geological Survey on the risks of abrupt climate change. Such a rise would be catastrophic, seeing hundreds of millions of people affected by flooding.
The new report warns that on our current emissions path, we face the severe risk of abrupt climate change impacts.
What is stunning is that these warnings come from the United States Geological Survey — the Bush Administration (!).
> climateprogress.org: US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level rise in 2100 will likely “substantially exceed” IPCC projections, SW faces “permanent drying” by 2050
> www.climatescience.gov: Abrupt Climate Change Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4
US Report: Abrupt Climate Shifts May Come Sooner, Not Later
> www.guardian.co.uk: Sea level could rise by 150cm, US scientists warn

Here comes the flood

Inhabitants of the Maldives plan to buy a new homeland, as sea level rise threatens to drown the archipelago.

December 11 2008 - Policymakers must start to view mass migration as a form of adaptation so that the global response to climate-induced migration is one of facilitation rather than neglect.
Two leviathans are about to collide on the world stage of science and politics — climate change and migration1. Their combination brings us to a tipping-point that could spawn a phenomenon of a scale and scope not experienced in human history2. Beyond reducing the greenhouse gases that drive global warming, we are now faced with the task of finding ways to deal with the impact of climate change. Next in line, or perhaps even ahead of mitigation, adaptation is the new game in town.
www.nature.com: Here comes the flood

Island nations slam slow U.N. progress on climate adaptation
Poznan, December 11 2008 - Tuvalu, a Pacific country vulnerable to rising seas, joined forces with other island nations at climate change talks in strongly criticising slow progress on launching a U.N. fund to help them adapt to the effects of global warming.
Apisai Ielemia, Tuvalu's prime minister, accused "some key industrialised countries" of trying to make the Adaptation Fund - which will be funded by a levy on carbon offsets from clean energy projects - inaccessible to those most in need.
"We are deeply disappointed with the manner some of our partners are burying us in red tape," he told the gathering of environment ministers in Poznan, where nearly 190 governments are working on details of a new treaty to fight climate change.
www.alertnet.org: Island nations slam slow U.N. progress on climate adaptation
More about the climate conference in Poznan

Not waving but drowning: Island states plead at UN talks
Poznan, December 9 2008 - Dozens of small island nations threatened by climate change have taken their case to the UN talks here, saying rising seas are already lapping at their shores and may eventually wash some of their number off the map.
An alliance of 43 tropical island states has set down proposals for capping global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times.
www.terradaily.com: UN climate chief downbeat about a complete deal for 2009

Victims of global warming could sue oil and power companies
London, December 9 2008 - Flood victims and those affected by extreme weather conditions could soon be able to sue oil and power companies they blame for global warming, according to a climate change expert.
www.telegraph.co.uk: Victims of global warming could sue oil and power companies

Climate Change Quickens, Seas Feared Up 2 meters

Oslo, 25 November 2009 - Global warming is happening faster than expected and at worst could raise sea levels by up to 2 meters (6-1/2 ft) by 2100, a group of scientists said on Tuesday in a warning to next month's U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen.
In what they called a "Copenhagen Diagnosis," updating findings in a broader 2007 U.N. climate report, 26 experts urged action to cap rising world greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 or 2020 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
"Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations," a joint statement said, pointing to factors including a retreat of Arctic sea ice in summer and melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.
"Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit," it said. Ocean levels would keep on rising after 2100 and "several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries."
> planetark.org: Climate Change Quickens, Seas Feared Up 2 meters
> copenhagendiagnosis.org: Updating the World on the latest Climate Science
> copenhagendiagnosis.org: Executive summary: The most significant recent climate change findings

Sea Surges Could Uproot Millions In Nigeria Megacity
Lagos, (Nigeria), November 20, 2008 - Millions of people in Nigeria could be displaced by rising sea levels in the next half century, as ocean surges swamp some of Africa's most expensive real estate and its poorest slums, scientists say.
www.planetark.com: Sea Surges Could Uproot Millions In Nigeria Megacity

Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a new homeland

Maldives: typical housing almost lost to sealevelrise

London, November 10 2008 - The Maldives will begin to divert a portion of the country's billion-dollar annual tourist revenue into buying a new homeland - as an insurance policy against climate change that threatens to turn the 300,000 islanders into environmental refugees, the country's first democratically elected president has told the Guardian.
www.guardian.co.uk: Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a new homeland
guardian.co.uk: The last days of paradise
www.cnn.com: Sinking island nation seeks new home

How much will sea level rise?
London, September 4 2008 - How much will sea level rise is the question people have been putting a lot of thought into since the IPCC AR4 report came out. We analysed what was in the report quite carefully at the time and pointed out that the allowance for dynamic ice sheet processes was very uncertain, and actually precluded setting a upper limit on what might be expected. The numbers that appeared in some headlines (up to 59 cm by 2100) did not take that uncertainty into account.
www.realclimate.org: How much will sea level rise?

Sea level rise by 2100 'below 2m'
London, September 4 2008 - Sea levels globally are very unlikely to rise by more than 2m (7ft) this century, scientists conclude.
Major increases would have to be fuelled by a faster flow of glaciers on the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets.
But writing in the journal Science, a US team concludes that a rise of 2m would need glaciers to reach speeds that are "physically untenable".
news.bbc.co.uk: Sea level rise by 2100 'below 2m'
www.eurekalert.org: Global sea-rise levels by 2100 my be lower than some predict, says CU-Boulder study
sciencenow.sciencemag.org: Seas to Rise Faster This Century
treasury.gov.uk (Stern Report): Sea level rise as a defining feature of dangerous interference with the climate system

Analysis of past glacial melting shows potential for increased Greenland ice melt and sea level rise
Madison, (Wisconsin), August 31 2008 - Researchers have yet to reach a consensus on how much and how quickly melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will contribute to sea level rise. To shed light on this question, scientists at the University of Wisconsin and Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research analyzed the disappearance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, the last ice sheet to melt completely in the Northern Hemisphere and the closest example of what can be expected to happen to the Greenland Ice Sheet in the next century.
www.eurekalert.org: Analysis of past glacial melting shows potential for increased Greenland ice melt and sea level rise
www.eurekalert.org: Ice Age lesson predicts a faster rise in sea level

West Africa: Coastline to be submerged by 2099

Slum housing in the Ebute Metta district of Lagos, Nigeria, September 2007 / Photo: Dulue Mbachu/IRIN

Accra, 25 August 2008 (IRIN) - Swathes of West Africa’s coastline extending from the orange dunes in Mauritania to the dense tropical forests in Cameroon will be underwater by the end of the century as a direct consequence of climate change, environmental experts warn.
"The coastline [as it is now] will be completely changed by the end of this century because the sea level is rising along the coast at around two centimetres every year," said Stefan Cramer, Nigeria director of Heinrich Boll Stiftung, a German environmental NGO.
West Africa: Coastline to be submerged by 2099

Stark warning on Britain's shrinking coast
London, August 18 2008 - Stretches of Britain's coastline are doomed and plans will soon have to be drawn up to evacuate people from the most threatened areas, the new head of the Environment Agency warns today.
Britain must surrender some erosion-hit areas to the sea, said Lord Smith, a former cabinet minister, as it will be impossible to defend them all from being overwhelmed.
www.independent.co.uk: Stark warning on Britain's shrinking coast
www.telegraph.co.uk: Evacuation plans needed due to coastal erosion, says Environment Agency

Natural Variability of Greenland Climate, Vegetation, and Ice Volume During the Past Million Years
Montreal, June 20 2008 - The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is a source of concern notably because of its potential contribution to changes in the sea level. We demonstrated the natural vulnerability of the ice sheet by using pollen records from marine sediment off southwest Greenland that indicate important changes of the vegetation in Greenland over the past million years. The vegetation that developed over southern Greenland during the last interglacial period is consistent with model experiments, suggesting a reduced volume of the Greenland ice sheet. Abundant spruce pollen indicates that boreal coniferous forest developed some 400,000 years ago during the “warm” interval of marine isotope stage 11, providing a time frame for the development and decline of boreal ecosystems over a nearly ice-free Greenland.
> www.sciencemag.org: Anne de Vernal and Claude Hillaire-Marcel: Natural Variability of Greenland Climate, Vegetation, and Ice Volume During the Past Million Years (Abstract)
> Eske Willerslev: DNA reveals Greenland's lush past (Jul 06 2007)

Key ocean mission goes into orbit
Vandenberg Airbase (FLA/US), June 20, 2008 - A space mission that will be critical to our understanding of climate change has launched from California.
The Jason-2 satellite is launched on a mission to measure the shape of the world's oceans and track sea level rise. The Jason-2 satellite will be taking readings with an accuracy of better than 4cm.
Its data will track not only sea level rise but reveal how the great mass of waters are moving around the globe.
news.bbc.co.uk: Key ocean mission goes into orbit

Disaster-Prone Deltas Next Climate Risk - Ecologist

Washington (US), June 16, 2008 - Some of the world's most productive and populous places -- river deltas from the Mekong to the Mississippi -- are ripe for disasters made worse by climate change, an ecological catastrophe expert said.
In fact, said marine biologist Deborah Brosnan, these disasters are already occurring.
www.planetark.com: Disaster-Prone Deltas Next Climate Risk
www.tsunamireefactionfund.org / Deborah Brosnan: If Nature Bats Last, Are We On Her Team?

How Bangladesh Is Preparing for Climate Change
May 12 2008 - Dutch engineers are helping people in Bangladesh build dikes, polders and water-retaining structures to protect them against recurring floods. Despite climate change, the country could even grow. Ultimately, though, the greatest threat in Bangladesh comes not from water but from political chaos.
www.spiegel.de: How Bangladesh Is Preparing for Climate Change

World Sea Levels To Rise 1.5m by 2100

Sea level rise in New York (source: reuters.com)

Vienna, April 16/22, 2008 - Melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warming water could lift sea levels by as much as 1.5 metres (4.9 feet) by the end of this century, displacing tens of millions of people, new research showed on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com: Sea level Forecast is Widely Inaccurate, according to New Study
www.planetark.com: World Sea Levels To Rise 1.5m by 2100
news.bbc.co.uk: Forecast for big sea level rise

Bangladesh faces climate change refugee nightmare

Abdul Majid is feeding his ducks

Dhaka, April 13 / 15, 2008 - Abdul Majid has been forced to move 22 times in as many years, a victim of the annual floods that ravage Bangladesh. There are millions like Majid, 65, in Bangladesh and in the future there could be many millions more if scientists' predictions of rising seas and more intense droughts and storms come true.
www.reuters.com: Bangladesh faces climate change refugee nightmare
See also the ZDF special: Wenn das ewige Eis schmilzt / Rückkehr der Sintflut (Apr 15)
www.hinduonnet.com: Stranded in the Sunderbans (Feb 24)
www.youtube.com: The 2007 flood

Plan to allow sea to flood Norfolk villages
London, March 28 2008 - Large swathes of Norfolk, including six villages, could be flooded under a controversial plan to deal with the effects of climate change.
The proposal would see Britain effectively admit defeat in the battle to maintain coastal defences and around 16,000 acres (25 square miles) of land in the Norfolk Broads would be allowed to flood.
www.telegraph.co.uk: Plan to allow sea to flood Norfolk villages
www.telegraph.co.uk: Norfolk Broads 'could be lost to sea in a year'

Sea levels rising too fast for Thames Barrier
London, March 22 2008 - A fear that sea levels will rise far faster than predicted this century has led to a revision of the plan to protect London from a devastating flood caused by the sort of storm surge in the North Sea that resulted in the closure of the Thames Barrier March 21 st.
www.telegraph.co.uk:Sea levels rising too fast for Thames Barrier

Greenhouse Gas Increase from U.S. Power Plants Highest Since 1998
Washington, March 18 2008 - Carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. power plants rose 2.9 percent from 2006 to 2007, according to data analysis by the Environmental Integrity Project. That's the largest annual increase in nine years, and it outpaced demand for electricity, according to the report.
The impact will last well beyond a year, warns EIP Director Eric Schaeffer: "Because CO2 has an atmospheric lifetime of between 50 and 200 years, today's emissions could cause global warming for up to two centuries to come."
If that's not depressing enough, try this on for size: Nine scientists, including ubiquitous NASA climate guru James Hansen, have written a draft paper saying that the globe has already passed the safe point for atmospheric CO2 concentration, and we should rapidly reduce emissions to approximately 1988 levels. Which is easier said than done.
www.environmentalintegrity.org: Greenhouse Gas Increase from U.S. Power Plants Highest Since 1998
www.grist.org: An interview with renowned climate scientist James Hansen
www.iop.org / Jim Hansen: Scientific reticence and sea level rise

Dutch to explore new ways to defend coastline
Amsterdam (Nl), February 1 , 2008 - The Dutch government said on Friday it would explore new ways of protecting its coastline from the effects of climate change, including the use of ground-breaking sensor technology.
www.reuters.com: Dutch to explore new ways to defend coastline

Fast-Rising Sea Levels in the Red Sea

London, 26 December, 2007 - Scitizen interviews Dr Eelco Rohling, who, along with colleagues, studied the changes in salinity of Red Sea water. Their research illustrates that , per century, sea levels rose well above the IPCC's estimated rise (the IPCC does not account for dynamic ice-sheet processes.)
scitizen.com: Fast-Rising Sea Levels in the Red Sea
www.soes.soton.ac.uk: High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period
meltwaterpulse.blogspot.com: M.I.S. 5e Meltwater Pulse

Carbon Cuts a Must to Halt Warming - US Scientists
San Fransisco (US), December 17, 2007 - There is already enough carbon in Earth's atmosphere to ensure that sea levels will rise several feet (meters) in coming decades and summertime ice will vanish from the North Pole, scientists warned on Thursday.
To mitigate global warming's worst effects, including severe drought and flooding, people must not only cut current carbon emissions but also remove some carbon that has collected in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, they said.
www.planetark.org: Carbon Cuts a Must to Halt Warming - US Scientists

Seas could rise twice as high as predicted: study
Washington, December 16, 2007 - The world's sea levels could rise twice as high this century as U.N. climate scientists have predicted, according to researchers who looked at what happened more than 100,000 years ago, the last time Earth got this hot.
news.bbc.co.uk: Rising seas 'to beat predictions'
www.reuters.com: Seas could rise twice as high as predicted: study
www.climateark.org: Sea levels could rise faster than predicted, scientists warn
www.nature.com: High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period

Islanders seek climate summit help
Kilu, (Papua New Guinea), December 5, 2007 - Squealing pigs lit out for the bush and Filomena Taroa herded the grandkids to higher ground last week when the sea rolled in deeper than anyone had ever seen.
What was happening? "I don't know," the sturdy, barefoot grandmother told a visitor. "I'd never experienced it before."
www.cnn.com: Islanders seek climate summit help

City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070

London, December 4 2007 - Millions more people across the world are going to be at risk from flooding in the future (2070) because of climate change and population increases.
And as many as 150 million people in the world's major cities - more than three times the 40m currently - will have to rely on flood defences for protection by 2070, according to a major new study.
But even then city-scale disasters are likely to become regular events across the world.
The gloomy forecasts come from the first stage of the largest study on urban coastal flood exposure ever undertaken.
The total value of assets exposed in the 136 port cities analysed is 3,000 billion (three trillion) dollars -- or around five percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005, it says.
Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St. Petersburg (Florida) and Virginia Beach (Virginia) are the most valuable pieces of real estate at risk.
>www.telegraph.co.uk: City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070
>www.telegraph.co.uk: Table of cities most exposed to coastal flooding
>tyndall.uea.ac.uk: Climate change could triple population at risk from coastal flooding by 2070 (pdf)
>www.oecd.org: Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes (pdf)
>www.planetark.com: Insurers Call for 25-Year Flood Strategy
>www.terradaily.com: Climate change: Asia's mega-deltas in frontline from flood risk

Climate change may wipe some Indonesian islands off map
Jakarta, December 3, 2007 - Many of Indonesia's islands may be swallowed up by the sea if world leaders fail to find a way to halt rising sea levels at this week's climate change conference on the resort island of Bali.
www.alertnet.org: Climate change may wipe some Indonesian islands off map

Island Nations Plan for Rising Seas, Mass Migration
Male (Maldives), November 15, 2007 - Countries usually evacuate their citizens because of war or a sudden and catastrophic natural disaster. For the Pacific island state of Kiribati, the climate change disaster facing the nation is no less dramatic but on a slower time scale and means preparing its 100,000 inhabitants for lives in nations less vulnerable to wild weather and rising seas.
www.planetark.com: Island Nations Plan for Rising Seas, Mass Migration
www.planetark.com: Bangladesh and Eastern India on Cyclone Alert

Climate change threatens human rights: small island states
Male, (Maldives), November 13, 2007 - Representatives of 26 of the world's small island states met in the Maldives capital Male on Tuesday to draft a resolution identifying climate change as a threat to human rights.
www.reuters.com: Climate change threatens human rights: small island states

Rising Seas Threaten Africa's Coastline - Unep
Johannesburg, November 9, 2007 - Africa's coastal infrastructure faces increasing danger of erosion from rising sea levels caused by climate change, the head of the UN Environment Programme said on Thursday.
www.planetark.org: Rising Seas Threaten Africa's Coastline - Unep

Rising Seas Likely to Flood U.S. History
New York, September, 24/25 2007 - Ultimately, rising seas will likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Va., as well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into orbit, many climate scientists are predicting. In about a century, some of the places that make America what it is may be slowly erased.
Global warming - through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding - is expected to cause oceans to rise by about 39 inches. It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation.
edition.cnn.com: Rising Seas Likely to Flood U.S. History
www.abqtrib.com: Seas will rise 39 inches in next century, scientests say History

Will oceans surge 59 centimetres this century - or 25 metres?
London, August 25 2007 - When Al Gore predicted that climate change could lead to a 20-foot rise in sea levels, critics called him alarmist. After all, the International Panel on Climate Change, which receives input from top scientists, estimates surges of only 18 to 59 centimetres in the next century.
But a study led by James Hansen, the head of the climate science program at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University, suggests that current estimates for how high the seas could rise are way off the mark - and that in the next 100 years melting ice could sink cities in the United States to Bangladesh.
www.theglobeandmail.com: Will oceans surge 59 centimetres this century - or 25 metres?
www.guardian.co.uk: Scientists warn on climate tipping points

United Kingdom: Second Thames flood barrier planned

London's drowning in the movie The Flood

London, August 25 2007 - A new £20 billion Thames barrier to save London from a potentially disastrous flooding threat is the centrepiece of a series of measures planned by the Government.
news.bbc.co.uk: Second Thames flood barrier planned
news.bbc.co.uk: London's drowning
www.telegraph.co.uk: Second Thames flood barrier planned

Global Warming Causing Mediterranean Sea to Rise, Threatening Egypt's Lush Nile Delta
Alexandria, Egypt, August 24 2007 - Millions of Egyptians could be forced permanently from their homes, the country's ability to feed itself devastated.
That's what likely awaits this already impoverished and overpopulated nation by the end of the century, if predictions about climate change hold true. The World Bank describes Egypt as particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming, saying it faces potentially "catastrophic" consequences.
www.enn.com: Global Warming Causing Mediterranean Sea to Rise, Threatening Egypt's Lush Nile Delta

Sea Rise Seen Outpacing Forecasts Due To Antarctica
Ny Alesund, August 23 2007 - A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the UN climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 metres (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday.
www.planetark.com: Sea Rise Seen Outpacing Forecasts Due To Antarctica

S.O.S.: Pacific islanders battle to save what is left of their country from rising seas

Tuvalu (TU), July 16, 2007 - Veu Lesa, a 73-year-old villager in Tuvalu, does not need scientific reports to tell him that the sea is rising. The evidence is all around him. The beaches of his childhood are vanishing. The crops that used to feed his family have been poisoned by salt water. In April, he had to leave his home when a "king tide" flooded it, showering it with rocks and debris.
news.independent.co.uk: S.O.S.: Pacific islanders battle to save what is left of their country from rising seas

London's small but relentless dip
London, July 12 2007 - A new assessment of land and sea level changes in London and the Thames estuary has been made by scientists.
news.bbc.co.uk: London's small but relentless dip

Sea level rise might be several meters
Scientists: Planet Earth today is in "imminent peril"
London, June 19 2007 - The Earth today stands in imminent peril and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change. Those are not the words of eco-warriors but the considered opinion of a group of eminent scientists writing in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Six scientists from some of the leading scientific institutions in the United States have issued what amounts to an unambiguous warning to the world: civilisation itself is threatened by global warming.
They also implicitly criticise the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for underestimating the scale of sea-level rises this century as a result of melting glaciers and polar ice sheets.
Instead of sea levels rising by about 40 centimetres, as the IPCC predicts in one of its computer forecasts, the true rise might be as great as several metres by 2100. That is why, they say, planet Earth today is in "imminent peril".
In a densely referenced scientific paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A some of the world's leading climate researchers describe in detail why they believe that humanity can no longer afford to ignore the "gravest threat" of climate change.
environment.independent.co.uk: Scientists: Planet Earth today is in "imminent peril"

Steffen: IPCC underestimates sealevel rise
Global Warming and the Melting of Greenland
Swiss Camp, Greenland Ice Cap, June 7, 2007 - Dr. Konrad Steffen is the director of University of Colorado at Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and a veteran researcher of Arctic climate. He discussed the accelerating melting of Greenland's ice cap and its effects on global ocean levels in an interview with Reuters on May 18 at his field research camp.
www.planetark.com: Global Warming and the Melting of Greenland

Research Finds That Earth's Climate is Approaching 'Dangerous' Point

Antarctica lost much more ice to the sea than it gained from snowfall according to a NASA survey done between 1992 and 2002. It also had a corresponding rise in sea level. The survey documented for the first time extensive thinning of the West Antarctic ice shelves. Credit: NASA/SVS

Washington, May 30 / June 4 2007 - NASA and Columbia University Earth Institute research finds that human-made greenhouse gases have brought the Earth’s climate close to critical tipping points, with potentially dangerous consequences for the planet.
Lead author James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, concludes: “If global emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise at the rate of the past decade, this research shows that there will be disastrous effects, including increasingly rapid sea level rise, increased frequency of droughts and floods, and increased stress on wildlife and plants due to rapidly shifting climate zones.”
Hansen's boss, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin, said in a radio interview that while global warming is changing Earth's climate, he's not convinced that it is "a problem we must wrestle with."
The NASA chief -- whose agency has come under fire in Congress for cutting several programs designed to monitor climate change -- also says it's "rather arrogant" for people to take the position that today's climate is the optimal one.
environment.independent.co.uk 03062007: 'Global warming is three times faster than worst predictions'
www.ens-newswire.com 01062007: Earth's Climate Approaches Dangerous Tipping Point
www.nasa.gov 05302007: Research Finds That Earth's Climate is Approaching 'Dangerous' Point
pubs.giss.nasa.gov: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study (pdf 6,1 mb)
www.sfgate.com 01062007: Head of NASA downplays global warming
pravda.ru 01062007: NASA chief says global warming may not be a concern, but scientists criticize comments
www.npr.org: NASA Chief Questions Urgency of Global Warming
www.npr.org: NASA Scientist Hansen Critiques Bush's Strategy
www.panda.org / Climate Witness: Robert Swan, Antarctica
www.sciencedaily.com: Earth's climate close to tipping point

'45 cm rise in sea-level will destroy Sundarbans'
New Delhi, April 24 2007 - Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove, faces a threat from global warming and a mere 45 cm rise in the sea level will destroy 75 per cent of the forest spread over 10,000 sq km in West Bengal and Bangladesh, a UN study said.
www.hindu.com: '45 cm rise in sea-level will destroy Sundarbans'

Rising seas threaten Bergen
Bergen, April 23, 2007 - Climate change and rising sea levels are posing huge threats to the historic city of Bergen on Norway's west coast. Large areas of downtown face submersion, and the ancient wharf known as Bryggen is especially vulnerable.
www.aftenposten.no: Rising seas threaten Bergen

That sinking feeling
Sydney, April 22, 2007 - The scientific evidence is undeniable. And sea-level rises inevitable. So why is no one interested in the plight of our nearest neighbours, asks Erin O'Dwyer.
www.smh.com.au: That sinking feeling
news.independent.co.uk: Bangladesh: A nation in fear of drowning

Cities at Risk of Rising Sea Levels

London, March 28, 2007 - More than two-thirds of the world's large cities are in areas vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels, and millions of people are at risk of being swamped by flooding and intense storms, according to a new study released Wednesday.
www.physorg.com: Cities at Risk of Rising Sea Levels
www.climateark.org: One in Ten at Risk from Rising Seas, Storms, Study Suggests

Tiny island with a global warning
London, March 28, 2007 - (BBC) - The tiny Indian island of Ghoramara, in the delta where the River Ganges meets the Bay of Bengal, is a symbol of the crisis the world is facing as it struggles to feed a growing population.
news.bbc.co.uk: The island of Ghoramara is gradually disappearing

The IPCC sea level numbers
London, March 27, 2007 - (BBC) - The sea level rise numbers published in the new IPCC report (the Fourth Assessment Report, AR4) have already caused considerable confusion. Many media articles and weblogs suggested there is good news on the sea level issue, with future sea level rise expected to be a lot less compared to the previous IPCC report (the Third Assessment Report, TAR).
Some articles reported that IPCC had reduced its sea level projection from 88 cm to 59 cm, some even said it was reduced from 88 cm to 43 cm ....
www.realclimate.org: The IPCC sea level numbers

Island people swallowed by the sea

London, 03 March 2007 - This week saw the launch of International Polar Year, an initiative in which scientists from 60 countries will study the Arctic and Antarctic, with the major focus on climate change.
The BBC's David Willis travelled to the remote Alaskan island of Shishmaref, a community that is being destroyed by climate change.
www.climateark.org: Island people swallowed by the sea
www.arctic.noaa.gov: Village of Shishmaref facing evacuation

Build inland, UN climate report warns
New York, March 2, 2007 - An international panel of scientists has proposed that all countries cease building on coastal land that is less than a metre above high tide so as to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.
environment.guardian.co.uk: Build inland, UN climate report warns

Climate change: scientists warn it may be too late to save the ice caps
London, February 20, 2007 - A critical meltdown of ice sheets and severe sea level rise could be inevitable because of global warming, the world's scientists are preparing to warn their governments. New studies of Greenland and Antarctica have forced a UN expert panel to conclude there is a 50% chance that widespread ice sheet loss "may no longer be avoided" because of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
environment.guardian.co.uk: Scientists warn it may be too late to save the ice caps
news.independent.co.uk 160207: Scientists sound alarm over melting Antarctic ice sheets

Bangladesh: At the mercy of climate change
London, February 19, 2007 - It is more exposed than any other country to global warming. And a series of unusual events - from dying trees to freak weather - suggest its impact is already being felt. Justin Huggler reports from the Sundarbans nature reserve.
news.independent.co.uk: Bangladesh: At the mercy of climate change

A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise
Postdam, December 14 2006 - A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C.
When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
www.pik-potsdam.de: A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Climate Model Predicts Greater Melting, Submerged Cities
New York, May 24 2006 - Over the past 30 years, temperatures in the Arctic have been creeping up, rising half a degree Celsius with attendant increases in glacial melting and decreases in sea ice. Experts predict that at current levels of greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide alone is at 375 parts per million--the earth may warm by as much as five degrees Celsius, matching conditions roughly 130,000 years ago. Now a refined climate model is predicting, among other things, sea level rises of as much as 20 feet, according to research results published today in the journal Science.
www.sciam.com: Climate Model Predicts Greater Melting, Submerged Cities

Probable extirpation of a breeding colony of Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) on Bermuda by Pleistocene sea-level rise
Townsville (Australia), October 2003 - Albatrosses (Diomedeidae) do not occur in the North Atlantic Ocean today except as vagrants, although five species were present in the early Pliocene. No fossil breeding sites of albatrosses were known previously. The timing of extinction of albatrosses in the North Atlantic was likewise unknown.
Deposits that formed near present-day sea level along the southeastern shore of Bermuda contain remains of a former breeding colony and include intact eggshells and bones of embryos, juveniles, and adults of Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), a critically endangered species now confined to a few islets in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
These deposits are correlated with the middle Pleistocene Lower Town Hill Formation, which at other sites have a radiometric age of 405,000 years ago. This equates with the marine isotope stage 11 interglacial, which culminated in a rise in sea-level to >+20 m.
Bones of a juvenile Short-tailed Albatross were also found in beach deposits at +21.3 m from this same interglacial. We interpret the extirpation of albatrosses on Bermuda as probably resulting from lack of nesting sites protected from storm surges over the little emergent land that remained at the height of the marine isotope stage 11 sea level rise.
www.pnas.org Climate Model Predicts Greater Melting, Submerged Cities

A +20 m middle Pleistocene sea-level highstand (Bermuda and the Bahamas) due to partial collapse of Antarctic ice
Nassau (Bahamas), April 1999 - Marine deposits at +20 ± 3 m on the tectonically stable coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas support the hypothesis of a partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet during the middle Pleistocene.
geology.gsapubs.org: A +20 m middle Pleistocene sea-level highstand (Bermuda and the Bahamas) due to partial collapse of Antarctic ice

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