No easy way out

London, October 15 2009 - Concerned by escalating greenhouse gas emissions, scientists are now looking in earnest at the possibility of global temperatures rising by 4 °C or more. Gathering this month at the University of Oxford, they sketched out a world affected by severe climate change, which they now see as increasingly probable.
> www.nature.com: No easy way out

Four degrees of global warming looms
Climate experts hotly debated the implications of a much warmer future and ways to adapt to the changes at a conference in Oxford this week. Global temperatures could reach 4°C above pre-industrial levels before the end of this century and rising sea-levels could drown some small islands, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates.
Audio files and slide presentations from the conference sessions at Oxford University are available at www.eci.ox.ac.uk.
> planetearth.nerc.ac.uk: Four degrees of global warming looms
> www.eci.ox.ac.uk: 4 degrees and beyond / Program / Slides / Audio

Most people in denial over climate change, according to psychologists

London, October 3 2009 - The Met Office has warned that if the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate temperatures will rise above four degrees C in the next fifty years.
This will cause sea level rise, droughts, floods and mass collapse of eco-systems.
However Clive Hamilton, Professor of public ethics at the Australian National University, said the majority of the population is still in denial about the risks of climate change.
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Most people in denial over climate change, according to psychologists

Rich countries 'must slash living standards' to fight climate change

London, October 2 2009 - Living standards in Britain and other rich countries must fall sharply over the next decade if the world is to avoid catastrophic global warming, according to a leading climate research centre.
Consumption of energy-intensive goods and services should be cut and remain capped until low-carbon alternatives are available, said the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The study says that Britain’s carbon dioxide emissions need to fall twice as fast as planned by the Government. It concludes that global greenhouse gas emissions are rising much faster than previously thought.
It says that Britain should commit to making all energy, including for electricity, heating and cars, zero-carbon by 2025, at least 25 years earlier than planned.
> www.timesonline.co.uk: Rich countries 'must slash living standards' to fight climate change

Planned recession' could avoid catastrophic climate change
London, September 30 2009 - Britain will have to stop building airports, switch to electric cars and shut down coal-fired power stations as part of a 'planned recession' to avoid dangerous climate change.
At the moment the UK is committed to cutting greenhouse gases by a third by 2020. However a new report from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research said these targets are inadequate to keep global warming below two degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
The report says the only way to avoid going beyond the dangerous tipping point is to double the target to 70 per cent by 2020.
This would mean reducing the size of the economy through a "planned recession".
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Planned recession' could avoid catastrophic climate change

4 Degrees and Beyond: Adaptation to what?
London / Oxford, September 30 2009 - If we are trying to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less but 4 degrees is possible even within some of our lifetimes, which world do we prepare for? Talks at today's session on adaptation took on the problem of the multiple futures that decision-makers have to face.
> blogs.nature.com / 4 Degrees and Beyond: Adaptation to what?

Earth will be OK, but for us it's not so good

Oxford, September 30 2009 - IT made for disturbing reading when we (New Scientist) asked scientists to speculate on what the world would be like if the global average temperature rose by 4 °C. They were happy to oblige, and the results formed the basis of the cover story for our 28 February issue.
Now climate scientists have firmed up their speculations with modelling studies, and their conclusions are, if anything, more worrying. A 4 °C rise would be a disaster.
It is not hard to imagine that if we fail to get a grip on the climate, civilisation will collapse altogether. So we asked another question: if we consume ourselves back to the Stone Age, what happens next? Would Earth recover?
The answers paint a strangely comforting picture of our planet's future - but they don't leave a lot of room for us or our descendants.
> www.newscientist.com /Post-human Earth: How the planet will recover from us

No rainforest, no monsoon: get ready for a warmer world
Oxford, September 30 2009 - By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4 °C unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now. This is the startling conclusion of a study by the UK Met Office, unveiled at a conference in Oxford this week.
> www.newscientist.com / No rainforest, no monsoon: get ready for a warmer world

Two meter sea level rise unstoppable: experts

Oxford, September 30 2009 - A rise of at least two meters in the world's sea levels is now almost unstoppable, experts told a climate conference at Oxford University on Tuesday.
"The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at Germany's Potsdam Institute and a widely recognized sea level expert.
"There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions."
Rahmstorf said the best outcome was that after temperatures stabilized, sea levels would only rise at a steady rate "for centuries to come," and not accelerate.
Scientists say that ice melt acquires a momentum of its own - for example warming the air as less ice reflects less heat, warming the local area.
"Once the ice is on the move, it's like a tipping point which reinforces itself," said Wageningen University's Pier Vellinga, citing various research.
"Even if you reduce all the emissions in the world once this has started it may be unstoppable. I conclude that beyond 2 degrees global average temperature rise the probability of the Greenland ice sheet disintegrating is 50 percent or more."
"(That) will result in about 7 meters sea level rise, and the time frame is about 300-1,000 years."
> www.reuters.com: Two meter sea level rise unstoppable: experts
> Pier Vellinga (VU-Amsterdam, Wageningen): Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+°C World (slides)
> audio
> Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research): Sea-level rise in a 4°C world (slides)
> audio
See also:
> Sea level rise

"Climate Illiterate" U.S. Seen Risking Warming Inaction

The Greenland ice sheet is expected to melt more rapidly at 4 degrees Celcius, potentially fuelling further warming and disrupting water supplies to more than 1 billion people. Preserving the Greenland ice cap is the defining action needed to prevent several meters of sea level rise.

London / Oxford, September 29 2009 - U.S. wavering on climate commitment could undermine action to save the planet, the director of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said on the sidelines of a conference on Monday.
Preserving the Greenland ice cap was the defining action needed to prevent several meters of sea level rise and warming which would threaten the world's food and water supplies, Hans Schellnhuber told reporters.
The doubts of many Republican U.S. senators over the practicality of a draft, domestic carbon-cutting law undermined the chances of strong global action soon, he said.
> planetark.org: "Climate Illiterate" U.S. Seen Risking Warming Inaction
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Americans are 'illiterate' about climate change, claims expert

How soon is it coming?
London, September 28 2009 - Unless major breakthroughs in policy, industry and individual behavior turn around our emissions trajectory pronto, this century could well see average global temperatures 4 degrees Celsius or more above their pre-industrial baseline. That's the starting point for the 4 Degrees and Beyond conference in Oxford this week. Here, 130 scientists and policy experts are taking a detailed look at a world warmed by twice the amount that's usually considered dangerous.
> blogs.nature.com / 4 Degrees and Beyond: How soon is it coming?

Is 350 the New 450 When It Comes to Capping Carbon Emissions?

New York, September 28, 2009 - Nearly 200 countries have signed a U.N. treaty pledging to avoid "dangerous" climate change. But lately, it seems, "dangerous" is lost in translation. Fifteen years since that agreement took effect, scientists and governments are still grappling with what carrying out its promise means.
For the European Union, it means limiting Earth's warming to just 2 degrees Celsius hotter by the end of this century than it was before the Industrial Revolution. That's a goal many experts believe is roughly equivalent to capping atmospheric carbon dioxide at 450 parts per million. But a growing number of countries -- mostly vulnerable ones and small island nations like the Maldives -- say that won't prevent rising sea levels from swamping their coasts.
They're calling for an even stricter standard: 350 parts per million, a number endorsed by NASA climatologist James Hansen.
> www.nytimes.com: Is 350 the New 450 When It Comes to Capping Carbon Emissions?
See also:
> Hansen page

4 degrees warming "likely" without CO2 cuts: study

Comparison of surface temperature projections from the high-end emissions scenario, without carbon cycle feedbacks. Temperature increases between 1961-1990 and 2090-2099, averaged over all high-end members.

London, September 28 2009 - Global temperatures may be 4 degrees Celsius hotter by 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, said a study published on Monday.
The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Center, echoed a U.N. report last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"Our results are showing similar patterns (to the IPCC) but also show the possibility that more extreme changes can happen," said Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Centre and co-author of a study published at the start of a climate change conference at Oxford University.
The results show a "best estimate" of 4C being reached by 2070, with a possibility that it will come as early as 2060.
Key to the Met Office calculations was the use of projections showing fossil fuel use continuing to increase as it has done for the last couple of decades.
"Previously we haven't looked at the impact of burning fossil fuels so intensely," said Dr Betts.
"But it's quite plausible we could get a rise of 4C by 2070 or even 2060."
> news.bbc.co.uk: Four degrees of warming 'likely'
> news.bbc.co.uk: Met Office ups warming forecast (video)
> www.eci.ox.ac.uk: 4°C global warming: regional patterns and timing (Presentation at 4°C+ conference, Oxford University)

Met Office: catastrophic climate change could happen with 50 years
London, September 27 2009 - An average global temperature rise of 7.2F (4C), considered a dangerous tipping point, could happen by 2060, causing droughts around the world, sea level rises and the collapse of important ecosystems, it warns.
> www.telegraph.co.uk: Met Office: catastrophic climate change could happen with 50 years
> Apocalyptic Warnings

4 degrees warming "likely" without CO2 cuts: study

London, September 27 2009 - Global temperatures may be 4 degrees Celsius hotter by the mid-2050s if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, said a study published on Monday.
The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Center, echoed a U.N. report last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
> www.reuters.com: 4 degrees warming "likely" without CO2 cuts: study

Rates of warming will be faster than most people expect
What could 4 degree warming mean for the world?

Oxford, September 27 2009 - A leading climate scientist has presented new research findings on the increasing potential for a 4 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures if the current high emissions of greenhouse gases continue.
> www.ox.ac.uk: What could 4 degree warming mean for the world?

Four degrees and beyond

London, September 27 2009 - If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked, it is likely that global warming will exceed four degrees by the end of the century, research by Met Office scientists has revealed.
Our scientists, working on behalf of Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), have found that if current high emissions continue there could be major implications for the world — with higher temperature rises than previously thought.
Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, presented the new findings at a special conference this month. 4 degrees and beyond at Oxford University, attended by 130 international scientists and policy specialists, is the first to consider the global consequences of climate change beyond 2 °C.
> www.metoffice.gov.uk: Four degrees and beyond